KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results: Harris increases lead to 8 points in Minnesota

Democrat Kamala Harris has an eight-point lead in our latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll for the 2024 presidential race. Harris leads Republicans Donald Trump 51% to 43%, with 3% undecided and 2% preferring another candidate. The poll has a credibility interval, or margin of error, of +/- 4%.

Harris led by six points in our poll conducted in late September and has led in every poll since she entered the race in late July, and in August she named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.

“This is a snapshot,” Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier said after reviewing the results. “We’ll see what the actual electorate looks like next Tuesday.”

Schier says he was surprised that so few respondents in the survey identified themselves as “independents,” a group where Trump has a one-point lead. Forty-two percent identified as Democrats and 35% identified as Republicans.

“Typically, about one-third of Minnesotans say they are independent, and less than 20% say they are in this survey,” Schier says.

Schier also notes an anomaly in the gender demographic breakdown, with Harris and Trump currently tied among men at 48% and Harris leading by 16 points among women. Last month, Trump led men by 12 points and Harris led women by 18 points.

“In this survey, we see a decline in support for Trump among Minnesotans,” Schier says. “A huge change in just a few weeks, which seems extraordinary. Likewise, Harris’ decline in popularity among women seems curious over the course of a few weeks.”

One part of the survey remains valid. Harris leads with 33 points in the state’s urban areas and 13 in suburban areas. Trump leads by 23 in rural areas.

“The races in all the swing states and across the country are very close, and I think you’ll probably get a narrow victory for Harris in Minnesota,” Schier said. “I don’t expect an eight-point lead.”

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults from 10/24/24 to 10/28/24. Of the adults, 801 were considered registered to vote; of registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 728 were likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the following factual questions. This study was conducted online with a non-probability sample of adult online panelists randomly selected by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was compared to the U.S. Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education and homeownership, and to the 2020 presidential vote recall.