Colorado vs. Predictions Kansas, Northwestern vs. Michigan: college football odds, picks

Although Deion Sanders and Co. impressed this year, I’m still not sold on the Buffaloes.

My biggest problem is that the offense is not good.

Shedeur Sanders is constantly fighting for his life, and Colorado ranks 104th in the nation in sack rate allowed (8%).

Of greater importance in this matchup is the fact that the Buffaloes can’t run behind their poor front five — they rank 110th in the nation in EPA pass success rate per Rush and seventh in pass pass success rate (60%).

This bodes well for Kansas.

The Jayhawks’ undersized front seven is vulnerable against the rush (125th nationally in EPA per rush).

However, the defense does well against the pass behind the solid cornerback duo of Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.

On the other hand, Kansas’ offense has gained momentum now that Jalon Daniels is healthy.

The Jayhawks suffered a string of unlucky losses early in the season, but have won three of their last four games, losing more than 40 points to Iowa State and Houston in the process.

Colorado’s defense is only average (66th nationally in EPA allowed per Rush), and the Jayhawks boast a top-10 rushing attack behind dual-threat Daniels and defensive star Devin Neal.

This is a good matchup for the up-and-coming Jayhawks, and it looks like the Buffaloes are overrated — four of six Big 12 victories went to teams with league records losing.

Select: Kansas +3.

Northwest (+10.5) over MICHIGAN

Michigan’s passing attack has looked a bit better since the Wolverines started playing Davis Warren again.

The senior can complete almost 60% of his passes and tends to keep the ball safe with a low average target depth.

Still, the Wolverines’ air attack is among the worst in college football.

They still rely too heavily on their rushing attack, ranking 27th in the country in rushing rate (58%).

This doesn’t bode well against Northwestern, which boasts a terrible secondary but talented front seven that ranks in the top 15 nationally by EPA in Rush Success Rate allowed and Rush Success Rate.

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I don’t know how Northwestern does, but the Wildcats’ defense can stay competitive, and scoring 10+ points in a high-scoring, low-scoring, high-pressure Big Ten battle is good value.

For what it’s worth, only one of Michigan’s five wins was by more than 10 points, and underdogs on the road in conference play with point totals under 45 points were 374-294-18 on the difference since 2005.

Can Michigan State look forward to next week’s rivalry game against Ohio State?

I wouldn’t be surprised if they look unprepared at home this Saturday against a traditionally bad Northwestern program.

Last week: 1-2. Notre Dame (left), Kansas State (left), Kansas (left).
Season 2024: 20-14.

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Why you should trust the New York Post

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball. He is an avid fan of the Vermont Catamounts, Miami Marlins and all underdog home teams. He found himself on the wrong side of Miracle in Miami in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot against Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.