Will it last? – DW – 27/11/2024

What does the ceasefire say?

The ceasefire agreement includes a two-month halt to fighting between the Israeli army and the armed wing of the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.

In detail, the ceasefire was – as expected – drawn up along the same lines as the 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution that ended a brief but brutal bout of fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli military in July and early August 2006

In 2006, Resolution 1701 established a buffer zone separating Israel from Hezbollah between the Litani River in Lebanon and the Blue Line, the latter being a “temporary” border drawn by the UN following earlier fighting and Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon.

In this new ceasefireofficially agreed by the governments of Israel and Lebanon and accepted by Hezbollah, both sides recognize the importance of Resolution 1701. As a result, Hezbollah is to withdraw north of the Litani River, while Israeli troops will gradually withdraw south of the Blue Line into Israel.

In accordance with resolution 1701, this buffer zone is managed by the Lebanese army and the 10,000-strong United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). This will continue, but the number of soldiers in the buffer zone will increase.

The Lebanese army will deploy 10,000 troops in the buffer zone to ensure that neither Hezbollah nor Israel returns.

UNIFIL, which consists of troops from 48 countries including Germany, is now likely to receive more support from the United States and other countries.

There have been repeated violations of Resolution 1701 over the years, with Israel and Hezbollah exchanging accusations that the other is the cause of all the problems. UNIFIL cannot enforce its rules militarily and must rely on the cooperation of all parties involved.

No US combat troops will be deployed to Lebanon, but US military support will be provided to the Lebanese army, which is smaller, underfunded and armed by Hezbollah.

Previously, UNIFIL was praised for facilitating communication between Israeli and Lebanese armed forces, which would not normally be in contact. Representatives from France and the United States will now join this communication channel and help monitor any new ceasefire violations.

Why did the parties agree to the settlement?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained that a ceasefire would allow Israel to “focus on Iran”, allow Israeli soldiers to recover and separate Hezbollah from Hamas in Gaza.

Analysis in an Israeli newspaper Haaretz suggested that there was also an increase in US pressure on Israel and because far-right politicians in Netanyahu’s coalition government were not threatening to withdraw from the government, as they had previously done when a ceasefire was suggested in Gaza.

Furthermore, although Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq could be carried out with very little risk to Israeli soldiers, the attempt to enter Lebanon was much more deadly. Hezbollah fighters were deployed along the border, and the death toll among the Israeli military rose.

As for Hezbollah, its leadership structure has been severely damaged and the impact of Israeli airstrikes on Lebanese civilians and the impact on the Lebanese economy has “weakened” the group’s will to fight, Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council specializing in the Middle East, explained.

Abercrombie-Winstanley noted that Resolution 1701 has often been criticized: “Even its imperfect implementation in 2006 has produced more than 16 years of relative peace and stability. Both sides are ready for this.”

Israeli defense experts also said Haaretz they believe that Hezbollah and its supporters in Iran also needed time to rebuild and regroup.

Will the ceasefire be permanent?

US President Joe Biden says the agreement was “aimed at a permanent cessation of hostilities.”

However, experts agree that the ceasefire is fragile because the underlying sources of the conflict still exist and its implementation will be difficult. Questions are already being asked about the Lebanese army’s ability to control the buffer zone.

Israel has said that if Hezbollah fighters violate the ceasefire agreement, they will be able to launch a counterattack in Lebanon.

Such a clause is unlikely to be included in the agreement as both Lebanese and Hezbollah officials have previously opposed it because it would violate Lebanese sovereignty.

“To circumvent this issue, media reports suggested that the United States would issue a letter supporting Israel’s right to act.” BBC reported.

Israeli media seemed to be confirmed on Wednesday. Reports detailing the US letter to Israel say it states:

• The United States guarantees the exchange of intelligence information on Hezbollah
• Israel could continue to conduct aerial reconnaissance over Lebanon – which was not allowed under the original Resolution 1701 –
• Israel could take action against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon if ceasefire conditions are broken, but should notify the US first.

Hezbollah officials also said the group reserves the right to act if Israel attacks.

When it comes to repeating Resolution 1701, “the challenges are the same as they were 18 years ago,” said Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon at the Crisis Group think tank. “Namely, how to ensure that both sides comply in the long term and what to do about Hezbollah’s military capabilities that pose a security threat to Israel and potentially other Lebanese, whether they are present on the border or a few kilometers away.”

Who else is involved in the ceasefire?

The ceasefire agreement has no application whatsoever to what is happening in Gaza. Biden has expressed hope that the momentum generated by the Lebanon deal could lead to a similar outcome in Gaza, but Israel’s Netanyahu has already reacted negatively to that suggestion.

The Gaza-based militant group Hamas “appreciates” Hezbollah’s right to reach an agreement to protect its citizens, an official with the group told the Reuters news agency. Hamas was also ready for a ceasefire agreement, the official said.

The ceasefire did not change the intentions of other members of the so-called The “Axis of Resistance”, a series of Iran-backed groups that consider Israel and the US to be their enemies.

Hamas is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the United States and several other countries. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by the US, Germany and several Sunni Arab countries, while the EU designates its armed wing as a terrorist group.

In Yemen, leaders of the Houthi rebel group “have characterized the ceasefire as a temporary adjustment, not a strategic retreat,” said Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a U.S. consulting firm specializing in Yemen. “This suggests that, together with Hezbollah and other factions… the Houthis are engaged in a long-term resistance strategy. The conflict remains unstable and its direction will largely depend on the response of Hezbollah and Israel.”

The ceasefire agreement greatly reduces the likelihood of escalation towards direct, all-out war between Israel and Iran. A spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs praised the agreement, adding that a ceasefire was also necessary in Gaza.

The Lebanese welcome the start of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah

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cs/sms (AP, Reuters, AFP, DPA)