Satellite images show that the Israeli attack appears to have hit an important Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile base

Jon Gambrell
| Related press

Dubai, United Arab Emirates — An Israeli attack on Iran likely damaged a base run by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program, satellite images analyzed Tuesday by The Associated Press showed.

The destruction at the Shahroud base raises new questions about the Israeli attack early Saturday, especially since it took place in an area previously unacknowledged by Tehran and targeted the Guard, a powerful force within Iran’s theocracy that has so far remained silent on any possible damage caused by the attack. . Iran said the Israeli attacks took place only in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran, and not in the rural province of Semnan, where the base is located.

It also potentially limits the Guard’s ability to produce solid-fuel ballistic missiles, which it must stockpile to deter Israel. Tehran has long relied on this arsenal because it cannot buy the advanced Western weapons that Israel and Tehran’s Arab neighbors in the Persian Gulf, especially the United States, have armed themselves with over the years.

Satellite images previously analyzed by AP of two military bases near Tehran, also targeted by Israel, show that facilities there used by Iran to produce ballistic missiles have been destroyed, further hampering its program.

“We don’t know whether Iran’s production has been crippled, as some say, or simply damaged,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which studies Iran. “We have seen enough photos to show there is an impact.”

Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israeli military declined to answer questions from the AP, but sent an earlier statement confirming that the attack targeted “missile production facilities.”

Photos show the destroyed main building of the Shahroud base

High-resolution satellite images from Planet Labs PBC downloaded and analyzed by the AP showed damage at the Guard’s Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, about 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of Iran’s capital Tehran. Semnan is also home to the Imam Khomeini Space Center, which is used by Iran’s civilian space program.

Photos showed that the central, main building of the Shahroud Space Center was destroyed, with the shadow of its still standing frame visible in a photo taken Tuesday morning. Vehicles, possibly belonging to officials inspecting the damage, could be seen around the scene, and more cars than usual were parked at the facility’s main gate nearby.

Three small buildings south of the main structure also appeared to be damaged. Iran has been building new buildings at the base in recent months. Another hangar northeast of the main building appears to have also been damaged.

Iran has not claimed responsibility for any attack on Shahroud. However, given the destruction of many structures, it was suggested that the Israeli attack included precision strikes on the base. Low-resolution photos taken since the attack showed signs of damage at the site not seen before the attack, further indicating that Israeli rocket attacks were the cause.

“We cannot 100% rule out that it was something else, but it is almost certain that this building was damaged by an Israeli attack,” Hinz said.

Given that the large building was surrounded by earthworks, it suggests that explosives were stored there, said Hinz, who has long studied the site. He added that this headquarters probably deals with mixing and pouring solid fuel.

Hinz said the large crates next to the building were probably also crates of rocket engines. Their size suggests they could be used in Iran’s Kheibar Shekan and Fattah 1 ballistic missiles, a missile that Iran says can reach speeds of Mach 15, or 15 times the speed of sound. Both were used in Iran’s attacks on Israel during the Israel-Hamas war and the subsequent ground invasion of Lebanon.

The Shahroud strike, combined with other strikes across the country, is likely to have put more pressure on Iran’s theocracy, especially as it assesses the damage to its main weapons arsenal and tries to downplay the attack.

“Thanks to the readiness and vigilance of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the timely response of the country’s air defense, limited damage was caused to some hit points,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during a meeting with foreign diplomats on Tuesday. Tehran: “Necessary actions were immediately taken to restore the damaged equipment to operational condition.”

The US fears that the Guard space program is a cover for missile research

A short distance from the destroyed buildings is a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has conducted a series of successful missions to put satellites into space using mobile launchers. The Guard, which answers only to 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revealed its secret space program in 2020.

The U.S. intelligence community’s 2024 Global Threat Assessment said Iran’s continued development of satellite launch vehicles would “reduce the production time” of an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing uranium at near weapons levels after abandoning the nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear weapons if it decides to produce them, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned.

Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its space program, like its nuclear activities, is solely for civilian purposes. However, US intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program until 2003. At Parchin, one of two military bases near Tehran targeted by Israel, a building linked to the program was destroyed.

“Just like with the Iranian nuclear program, you don’t build the system itself, you build the entire technology under the guise of a civilian program,” Hinz said.

Iran could then decide to acquire these weapons or use its knowledge as a bargaining chip with the West regarding international sanctions.

But for now, satellite images suggest Iran is still trying to assess the aftermath of the Israeli attack.

“The emerging picture is of significant damage to Iran’s air defenses and missile launch facilities, both of which would be designed to show the Iranians that they are vulnerable to further attacks if they attempt to retaliate,” an analysis published Monday by two experts from Britain’s Royal United Services said Institute.