Harris’ lead over Trump is shrinking

Former President Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris According to a new survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos leave on Tuesday.

The poll of 1,150 adults nationwide, including 975 registered voters, conducted over the three days ending Sunday, showed Harris leading Trump 44% to 43%. According to Reuters, among respondents who seemed most likely to vote, Harris led Trump (47% to 46%).

Harris’ one-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error of about three percentage points.

Harris has led in all Reuters/Ipsos polls of registered voters since July, when she entered the race to replace President Joe Biden, but the website reports that the margin of her lead has been steadily shrinking since late September.

“Harris’s marginal lead over Trump may not be enough to win the election, even if it holds through November 5,” Reuters said.

Trump scored better on service immigration and economyand Harris is doing better on political extremism in polls, although her lead on this issue is also shrinking, according to Reuters.

What to remember when voting

A poll’s margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results to be representative of the population as a whole.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” he says. Pew Research Center.

Pew too found that most pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, when Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

National polls usually indicate where candidates stand in the popular vote, but the election will likely be decided by seven swing states due to Electoral College system. Recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consultations polling in swing states also shows the candidates in a tied race.

Kinsey Crowley is a successful reporter at USA TODAY. Contact her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.