Tensions are rising in Canada ahead of the US federal election

With the U.S. federal election next Tuesday, tensions are rising even north of the border.

More than 600,000 Americans living in Canada are eligible to vote in next week’s election, and even Canadian citizens have a lot at stake in the outcome.

According to Bruce Heyman, former U.S. ambassador to Canada, the race for president of the United States is so close that Americans living in Canada can make a difference.

“Canada cannot influence our elections and Canadians should not get involved,” Heyman said, “but Americans living in Canada can actually play a pivotal role here.”

Democrats typically have a greater influence on the expatriate vote in Canada, outnumbering Republicans in Canada by about three to one, but voter turnout can influence that influence.

Typically, Americans in Canada have very low voter turnout – six to eight percent.

But both Republicans and Democrats are working to change that.

“Our voters are very motivated, and a lot of them who really weren’t that interested in voting got their ballots this time and voted,” said Georganne Burke of Republicans Abroad.

“We will never see all 600,000 Americans in Canada vote, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that percentage goes from eight per cent to something higher.”

Diana Keto-Lambert of Democrats Abroad says her group is working to ensure that American voters in Canada can pick up their ballots.

“We try to tell them as clearly as possible that their vote has a significant impact not only on the presidential race, but also on opposing votes. That’s why they vote for senators and for the house that always wins every two years, it’s extremely important to pass legislation,” Keto-Lambert said.

“So this is something we do, reaching out to voters, organizing registration drives and informing them about it. At university we had students who said, ‘Well, I’ve never lived there. Can I vote at all?». Well, you absolutely can. It is your right and I would say your duty.

Although Canadians have no say in the U.S. election, they do have a stake in its outcome.

Both candidates offer protectionist economic policies, and Kamala Harris is an environmental advocate, making many wary of her stance on resource development.

But Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, says a Donald Trump administration may not be better for Alberta’s oil and gas industry.

“A Harris administration would truly be a continuation of the (Joe) Biden administration. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) brought many subsidies for renewable energy production. “I imagine that will continue,” Young said.

“I don’t think Trump would be as supportive of renewables, but I’m not sure he would embrace Canadian or Albertine oil in the way some might imagine. He referred to the oil sands as ‘dirty oil’ and expressed real ambitions for the United States to be a significant producer of its own oil, so maybe it wouldn’t be such a win for oil and gas.”

The CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce says Trump’s promise of tariffs on “everything outside the U.S.” is keeping her awake at night.

“I’ve never been so nervous because I’m really, really scared of what might happen,” Deborah Yedlin said.

“A 10 percent tariff on our energy exports – from an energy perspective, $166 billion is going to the United States, so 10 percent, $16 billion – is a huge hit if we think of Calgary as the energy capital.”

Yedlin argues that not only would the energy industry be hit hard by radical tariffs, but almost every sector of the Canadian economy.

“We know that 78 per cent of Canadian exports go south. 90 per cent of Alberta’s exports go south. So we’re talking about agriculture, (we’re talking) about energy, we’re talking about inputs that end in Canada and come back to the States,” she said.

“It’s a supply chain issue. How are you going to untangle these supply chains from a tariff standpoint?… This should be a real concern from an economic standpoint.”

Policy analysts say the Canada-Mexico free trade agreement can only provide Canada with temporary protection.

This is because it is scheduled to be renegotiated in 2026.

Trump has already said he wants a renegotiation, and Harris voted against it at the beginning.