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Josh Downs’ play this year far exceeds his stats (Video)

Posted on by Gerres
Josh Downs’ play this year far exceeds his stats (Video)

A simple look at the box score or study the fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story about how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers that are worth taking a closer look at.

Yes… The numbers lie.

Downs ranks 32nd in receiving yards per game, but gets a significant fantasy boost when the Colts move on to Joe Flacco. Downs tops the rankings catchable targets per match (9.0) and fourth century yards per route with Flacco this season. He was too fantasy WR5.

Downs is a legitimate cross country runner who is also Reception perception favorite. It ranks 13th in the table ESPN open score despite returning this season from a sprained ankle. Indy audiences will soon see improved intermediate accuracy and increased volume; The Colts have averaged 17 more passing yards in games Flacco has started this season. This week he gets a Vikings passing defense that has allowed wide receivers the most fantasy points this year and 12 passing TDs over the last four games. Downs missed Wednesday’s training, but it was likely a rest day after being able to play with a finger injury last week.

Downs is a top-15 WR this week.

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Mayfield has been fantastic this season and leads the league with four TD passes. But regression is coming, especially with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. Mayfield’s 7.4% TD rate is a hair away from the league leader and well above his career mark of 4.9%. He undoubtedly benefits from frequent bullseyes, but he’s also incredibly tense; Mayfield has attempted just five more red zone passes than Matthew Stafford, who has 14 fewer TD passes. Tampa Bay has scored touchdowns on 68% of red zone opportunities this season, third in the NFL.

Probably Evans inactive until at least week 12and Godwin is eliminated from the regular season, leaving Cade Otto his best pass catcher. Mayfield managed to overcome the shortage of his star wingers last week, but his next matchup in Kansas City will be much more difficult; The Buccaneers have the lowest suggested team total this week (17.5 points) against a Chiefs defense with the third-highest pressure rate. Mayfield will ruin his career passing for touchdowns this season, but his blistering pace will surely decline in the future.

Olave’s points per game this season are the same as Quentin Johnston and Jalen Tolbert, but his fantasy arrow is pointing up. Last week he saw 14 targets return from injury, league leader in WOPR against a Chargers secondary that had previously not allowed a single WR to have eight targets or 100 yards in any game this season. Olave saw target share of 37%. and a target rate of 40.6% on the first read in his first match without Rashid Shaheed this season. Shaheed leaves with the eighth-most air yards in the league, and New Orleans is extremely weak at WR, with Bub Means and Cedric Wilson also injured.

What’s more, Derek Carr is expected return this week. He is a significant improvement over Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both posted completion percentages above expectations in the third and tenth percentiles last week. The Saints have a solid expected points rating (26.5) against a Panthers defense that has thrown an NFL-high 17 touchdown passes. Carolina also has the league’s lowest pressure rating, as does Carr Targets Olave twice as often when not under pressure.

Olave is the WR46 so far this season, but he’s my WR12 this week.

Hill was a huge disappointment on the fantasy team, but with Tua Tagovailoa back, he looks to showcase his ADP later in the game. Hill averaged 55.3 yards and zero touchdowns in eight games without Tagovailoa in Miami, but in 32 games with him he averaged 107.3 yards and scored 21 touchdowns (h/t RotoViz). Hill literally averaged twice as many fantasy points when Tagovailoa was on the court.

Moreover, Hill has recorded 28% of Tagovailoa’s target share this season, while Jaylen Waddle has recorded just 15%. The Dolphins changed position from last to almost first with a neutral pass rate against Tagovailoa last week, and Miami’s offense ranked first in games played (68) and passing yards per game (40!) in his three starts this season. Hill missed Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury, but will likely be rested when he could have played last week.

Miami’s offense hasn’t looked all that explosive this season, even with Tagovailoa, but Hill’s depth is high enough that Hill will be a top-five fantasy WR in the long run.