Northwestern vs. Predictions Purdue: odds, expert picks, QB matchups, betting trends and stats

Northwestern (3-5) has cruised through its first eight games with ease, losing just 1-5 against Power Four opponents while sporting a modest 2-6 ATS record. Their lone Big Ten victory came in a 37-10 victory over @Maryland, but the Wildcats posted a macabre 0% expected win in each of their remaining four B10 contests. Offense is the crux of the problems for a team that ranks 129th in EPA/play and 132nd in points per scoring opportunity and 126th in EPA/return. Defensively is a different matter, as Northwestern’s D-balanced team ranks 10th in yards per successful rush allowed and 17th in 20+ yard completion rate (11.8%).

Purdue (1-6) has yet to beat an FBS opponent and is coming off a dismal 35-0 streak against undefeated Oregon. Their best moment was a thrilling comeback against @Illinois where they scored 49 points but still lost to the Illini 50-49 despite having a projected winning percentage of 75%. Purdue relies on a strong rushing offense that ranks seventh in yards per play (11.9 yards) and 18th in yards before contact. However, they are hampered by one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 130th in EPA/rush and 132nd in yards per rush allowed.

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Game details and how to watch 2024 Northwestern @ Purdue

· Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024
· Time: 12:00 EST
· Venue: Ross-Ade Stadium
· City: West Lafayette, IN
· TV/Streaming: BTN

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Northwestern @ Purdue odds

Latest odds from BetMGM for Thursday:

• Money Line: Northwest (-115), Purdue (-100)
• Proliferation: Northwest (-1.5)
• Over/Under: 46.5 points

Purdue was actually a (-1.5) favorite, but that line was lowered to (+1.5) at the time of publication. The moneyline has remained relatively stable except for the total, which started at 46 and now stands at 46.5.

NBC Sports Bet’s best bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) says:
“With both defenses struggling to stop opposing offenses and QB Ryan Browne giving Purdue a dual-threat option at QB, I think a score above 46.5 points is worth taking a look at.”

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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (last week to now)

• Georgia +350 to +325
• Oregon +500 to +450
• Texas A&M +3000 to +2200

Highest ticket%

• Ohio State 14.5%
• Texas 12.0%
• Georgia 11.1%

Highest handle%

• Ohio State 18.9%
• Georgia 17.0%
• Texas 11.7%

The biggest liabilities

• Ohio State
• Tennessee
• Colorado

Quarterback duel for Northwestern @ Purdue

• Northwest: QB Jack Lausch leads a lethargic passing attack that ranks 127th in efficiency and 120th in pass rush with a 53% completion rate. He’s 4-4 and has done a commendable job of avoiding sacks with a 15.7% pressure-to-sack ratio, which is important because the Wildcats are allowing a 34% pressure-to-sack ratio (95th). While Lausch has been quite disappointing thus far, averaging a PFF pass percentage of 58% with the second-lowest completion rate among P4 signal-callers, he is still a step ahead of opening day starter Mike Wright.

• Purdue: Hudson Card moved from Texas, where his services were no longer needed following the arrival of Quinn Ewers and the involvement of Arch Manning. He started the first five games of the season, completing 64% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt and posting a respectable passing grade in the 75th percentile on PFF. When OC Graham Harrell was fired after Week 6, Card was also demoted, opening the door for redshirt freshman Ryan Browne to take the helm. Browne completed 61% of his throws, giving him 8.2 YPA and a 3-to-1 ratio, good for an offensive rating of 85.3. He performed exceptionally well against Illinois (91% game rating), but struggled against Oregon’s strong defense in his last start.

Trends and latest statistics for Purdue and Northwestern

• Northwestern is allowing 21 completions per game, third-lowest among Big Ten teams, while Purdue is allowing 15 passes per game, fourth-lowest among B10 programs.
• QB Jack Lausch has converted on 16% of his third down opportunities this season, the second-lowest rate among P4 quarterbacks. (Bock Glenn = #1 at 15%)
• Purdue has allowed 1,196 yards in seven games (171 YPG), which ranks 120th among FBS programs, while Northwestern is allowing 234 passing yards per game, which is 93rd in the nation.
• Purdue is allowing more than 20 yards on 16% of its passing attempts (27 of 171), the second-highest big play rate among Power Four programs. Kentucky allowed the highest 20+ yard completion rate among P4 programs at 16.6%.

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