Friday 5: Key questions for NASCAR drivers ahead of playoff weekend at Homestead

Round 8 continues next weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway with NASCAR Cup, Xfinity and Truck Series events. Here are some key questions and other considerations.

1. Will any of the players below the Cup line advance?

This is the largest gap in Cup playoff history after the first race of any round.

Denny Hamlin is 27 points from the last transfer spot, the closest of any player below the cutoff line. Tyler Reddick is 30 points below the line. Reigning Cup champion Ryan Blaney is 47 points behind and Chase Elliott is 53 points off the final transfer spot. There are two races left in the round.

Of the four, Homestead appears to be the best place for Reddick, the regular-season champion. He was in the top five in three of his four starts in these cups.

But he comes this weekend on a terrible streak. Reddick has finished outside the top 10 in each of the last six playoff races. He finished 20th or better in five of those six races, including a 35th-place finish in Las Vegas last week after contact with Elliott caused a crash that sent Reddick tumbling across the infield stretched out in front before he drove a crashed car into his stall in the pits.

Martinsville will remain after this weekend, with Reddick not finishing better than seventh at this track. In nine starts in the Cup, he has two places in the top ten. He only qualified in the top ten there once. The only difference is that this time Martinsville will have a tire change starting in the spring.

Hamlin also has a lot of question marks in the final two races of this round.

Although he had four top-10 finishes in the last five playoff races, he struggled to score stage points. He scored one point in the last seven stages.

The task is simple, Hamlin said this week on his “Actions Detrimental” podcast.

“If you’re going to talk about the top three you absolutely have to do in every stage and the race for the next two weeks, it’s me and Reddick,” Hamlin said. “No exceptions.

“If you’re not in the top three in every stage, that’s four stages and a race, there’s no way we’re going to make up ground against (William) Byron, (Kyle) Larson or (Christopher) Bell. Also assuming one of them doesn’t have a good week, they won’t end it great. So you need help too.

2. What are the chances of Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney advancing?

Chase Elliott was cheeky when talking to reporters this week about his situation.

“For the next two weeks we are in a must-win situation,” he said.

Blaney is also in a similar place.

Elliott is the only driver remaining in the playoffs with one win this season. His victory came in April in Texas.

Elliott found himself in this position after last week’s collision with Tyler Reddick in Las Vegas, which resulted in damage to both cars – including Blaney’s car, which tried to avoid a spinning car and hit a wall.

While there are differences between Las Vegas and Homestead, Elliott feels confident heading into the weekend after how he performed before the crash in Las Vegas.

“We just have to keep working in the direction we worked last weekend,” Elliott said. “I thought we were on a good run and hopefully that translates into Homestead.

“It’s easy to stay motivated when you’re on pace and feel like you’re doing the right thing. I feel like that’s what we’ve been aiming for, so we’ll try to continue that this weekend. “

3. What about those above the Cup cut line?

The three drivers above the cutoff line this weekend are also the last three winners at Homestead.

Christopher Bell is 42 points above the cutoff line, Kyle Larson is 35 points above the cutoff line and William Byron is 27 points above it.

Bell won last year at Homestead. Larson won in 2022. Byron won in 2021. These three drivers combined to lead 61% of the laps led in the last three races at Homestead and 71.5% of the laps led in the last two races at the track.

Additionally, Bell ranks first in points scored among other postseason playoff drivers with 265. Byron is next with 254. Larson is fourth with 217 points, one point behind Joey Logano.

Either way, nothing will be easy this round, but the strength of these drivers makes it more difficult for those below the finish line to secure a Championship 4 spot.

4. A closer look at the Championship 4 drivers across the three series

With one race each in Round 8 of Cup, Xfinity and Truck Series competition, Joey Logano (Cup), AJ Allmendinger (Xfinity) and Grant Enfinger (Trucks) secured a spot in their series title race.

Combined, these three drivers won one points race during the regular season of their respective series. Logano won the five-overtime Cup race at Nashville Superspeedway.

Allmendinger’s best regular-season result in the Xfinity Series was third place at Atlanta and Watkins Glen.

In the Truck Series, Enfinger’s best regular-season finish was second place at North Wilkesboro and Pocono.

Logano has won twice in the playoffs, including last week in the Cup race in Las Vegas. Allmendinger finished second at the Charlotte Roval before winning last week in Las Vegas. Enfinger finished ninth in Kansas before winning at Talladega.

Logano, Allmendinger and Enfinger combined to win four of 15 playoff races (26.7%) in the three series combined.

It’s also worth noting that all three drivers are at least 34 years old. Logano is the youngest of the trio at 34 years old. Enfinger is 39 years old. Allmendinger is 42 years old. Allmendinger is the oldest driver to win the Xfinity Series since Mark Martin won the race in 2011 at the age of 52.

5. Numbers worth knowing

5 – Various winners this season on 2.5-mile tracks: Kyle Larson (Las Vegas I, Kansas I), Christopher Bell (Coca-Cola 600), Ross Chastain (Kansas playoffs), Chase Elliott (Texas ) and Joey Logano (Las Vegas) playoffs).

13 – This season’s Cup races went to overtime, a series record. The last time the Homestead Cup race went to overtime was in 2016, when Jimmie Johnson won for a record seventh Cup championship.

20.6 – Tyler Reddick’s average score in the playoffs. His average score during the regular season was 11.2.

70% – of the eventual champions won the race in the 8th round in the play-off system.

367 – Laps led (out of 783) that Christopher Bell has led in the last three races on 2.5-mile tracks. In those three races, Bell finished second (Las Vegas in the playoffs), seventh (Kansas in the playoffs) and first (Coca-Cola 600).