Three reasons why the Packers will beat the Jaguars

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, considered a preseason Super Bowl contender, appear to have found their groove.

They weren’t dominant, but the Packers (5-2) had won three straight games before Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5).

The Jaguars are also playing better, with two wins in their last three games, but here are three reasons why the Packers will win again ahead of next week’s showdown with the Detroit Lions.

Great offense against great defense

Big plays win games and this is where the Packers have, well, a big advantage.

The Packers rank third in the NFL in explosive plays, defined as either an 18-yard pass or a 12-yard run. The Packers rank seventh in explosive passing yards with 33 and rank second in explosive runs with 26.

Green Bay’s offense ranks second in 20-yard plays with 33. In total, she is second with 25 passes and sixth with eight runs.

Jacksonville’s defense is second to last with 33 plays for 20 yards allowed, 30 of which came through the air. A league-worst six touchdowns from within 20 yards are also allowed. Much of this damage was done when top defenseman Tyson Campbell was not in the lineup; he returned to the game last week and nearly intercepted a pass in a 32-16 win over New England.

But even with Campbell, rookie quarterback Drake Maye threw for 276 yards with a 109.7 passer rating.

There should be plenty of opportunities for Love, especially with Green Bay’s balanced attack.

“He’s a really good player,” Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen said of Love. “He takes care of that position and offense. He commands everything. He knows where to go with the football. Matt did a great job of attacking, planning and getting them in position (to make plays).

“The guy can make any shot. Of course, the offense is only built from where it started from the beginning of its career to the present. You see the progression of this. Then, thanks to his legs, he will be able to get out of trouble. You saw him against Philly, he runs away from the pocket and throws the ball deep. His ability to move and shoot on the run makes him an elite player at the position. It will definitely be a good challenge.”

One invisible advantage for the Packers. Love ranks seventh in yards per completion while the Jaguars rank 31st in YAC allowed.

Jordan Love vs. Jaguars with one pick

If there’s one problem for the Packers, it’s Love’s big mistakes. Even though he missed two games with a knee injury, Love recorded a league-worst eight interceptions.

There seems to be an awareness that Love’s aggressive style comes with an acceptable level of risk. Still, it has to be better. Both interceptions last week against Houston were avoidable, and there was an ill-advised bomb into the end zone on the game-winning pass that fortunately was incomplete.

Enter the Jaguars, who have intercepted one pass this season.

“I think obviously interceptions are something I want to clean up and definitely improve because I can play the ball cleanly,” Love said this week. I think we are focusing on playing in attack and having 100% confidence on the ball. This is definitely a great choice.

“There are always different reasons for interceptions, whether it’s a bad read, a bad thrown ball, things like that. It happens in many different ways. For me, this is definitely something I want to focus on moving forward.

The Jaguars’ lone interception belongs to safety Andrew Wingard, who is eligible to return from injured storage this week.

No wonder the Jaguars are 2-5. They allowed a league-high 16 touchdown passes and threw one interception, a league-low. They rank last in opponent passing yards and 28th in yards per attempt. They also rank 26th in pressure percentage, and pressure gives the defense the best chance at stealing.

The aforementioned Campbell had one interception in 11 games last season, but has three picks and 15 pass breakups in 2022. Former Packers linebacker Darnell Savage had the sixth pick in the playoffs last year, but hasn’t had a regular-season interception since 2022.

“They certainly have a lot of good weapons there, which a lot of good teams in this league have,” Savage told reporters this week. “But ultimately there is only one football. So you just have to do your job every play, just be ready and think that the ball is going to come to you every play, no matter what. As long as we keep that attitude and just play when they come to us, we’ll be fine.

Situational success

Yards are great, but they’re all empty calories if you can’t move the chains on third down or get to the end zone on first down.

The Jaguars are terrible at all aspects of what coaches call situational football.

Jacksonville’s offense ranks 24th on third down (34.2 percent conversion) and 26th on fourth down (46.7 percent). Meanwhile, its defense ranks 26th on third down (45.1%) and 29th on fourth down (70.0%).

Focusing on field goals is a sure way to lose. The Jaguars rank 24th in the red zone (50.0 percent of touchdowns) and 27th in scoring (60.0 percent). Giving up touchdowns is also a sure way to lose. Defensively, the Jaguars rank dead last in the red zone (78.3 percent of tries) and on goal (100.0 percent of tries).

The Packers are average in all of these categories. They rank 12th on third down, 17th on fourth down, 18th in the red zone and 19th in goals scored. They rank 15th in third down defense and 10th in fourth down defense, as well as 19th in the red zone and 25th in goals scored.

However, during three straight games, they were better in the red zone (tied for ninth in offense and eighth in defense).

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— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 25, 2024