Cincinnati Bearcats football keys to the game: TCU Horned Frogs

CINCINNATI – Rush or moratorium, elation and despair. Cincinnati tries to find the silver lining in Saturday’s season finale against the TCU Horned Frogs (7-4 record).

The University of California needs this win to qualify for the playoffs and snap another four-game losing streak in two short years under Scott Satterfield. To do this, they will have to overcome all odds. According to the ESPN Matchup Predictor, TCU wins 52.3% of the time as the favorite on two-point bets.

The Horned Frogs are 35th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, while Cincinnati is 68th.

“It’s hard to put into words,” University of California head coach Scott Satterfield said of Saturday’s importance and making a bowl bid. “Of course we know how big that amount would be, right? I think any time you win in the offseason, it’s just a break from everything that keeps you dynamic in the offseason. Next Wednesday is signing day for high school players and most of them are already committed and we know where we are at.

“A week later the portal will open, so we will invite the guys to join us. December will of course be very busy. If you manage to go out, win, and when you bring the guys from the portal, you practice. There is a better atmosphere here, much more positive. Words can’t describe how big this event would be for the next three to four weeks. guys, you’ve got bowling drills, it’s just a lot better for sure the feeling.

UC is trying to improve to an all-time record of 3-1 against TCU, having last played them in 2004.

TCU is a solid defense, especially effective in pass coverage. Cincinnati will be able to keep the ball in this game, but they have largely been able to run all season long, and last week was a perfect example of that. If receivers continue to struggle to open the game (or have three-plus turnovers again), Cincinnati won’t be able to keep up with TCU quarterback Josh Hoover and the Horned Frogs offense.

That’s easier said than done for a defense ranking 27th in return success rate allowed, 64th in EPA per return rate and posting a coverage grade of 89.7 in PFF (t-17th nationally). Overall, they allow 6.3 yards per attempt (27th nationally).

Play action may be the elixir here, and Sorsby needs to start taking advantage of it (62.3 PFF grade on PA throws, 8.7 YPA, 78.3 PFF grade on non-PA throws, 6.8 YPA). TCU will likely try to shut down the most challenging routes, let Cincinnati run and force them to travel long distances. In such scenarios, teams focus too much on the run and run out of time to win.

They rank in the bottom 50 nationally in rushing attempts per game and rushing yards per game. A few plays where Cincinnati can run the defense and return the deep pass could make the difference. Once teams get into the red zone, they score points in TCU (66.6% TD rate allowed in RZ, 100th in the nation). The Horned Frogs are also very shaky on late downs, ranking 110th in the country in third down conversion rate allowed (44.12%).

“There were a lot of failed attempts; balls were knocked over,” Satterfield said of Sorsby’s recent shaky pass. “I think part of it is the mechanics of keeping your balance and not fading. It’s really just sitting there, keeping your front shoulder down and making sure the ball doesn’t come at you. I think part of it is because he also presses too much and tries to make every move when it’s not necessary. You just have to take what the defense gives you and what’s in front of you and not try to make every play perfect.

Cincinnati won’t win this game if it hits one or fewer passes of more than 15 yards, as it has in each of the last two weeks. This week, Xzavier Henderson & Co. must work more consistently towards separation.

TCU running back Savion Williams could break this game alone along with wide receiver Jack Beck. The latter has a whopping 1,007 receiving yards at 17.1 yards per catch (53rd in the country) and nine points.

UC cornerback Jordan Young has performed well this year, and it will take another strong performance to stop the main engine of TCU’s seventh-ranked pass rush and 26th-best EPA per sack. Williams is a completely different beast than the Swiss army knife on the defensive line and on the wing.

This season he is averaging 10.5 yards per catch and 7.3 yards per carry on 100 touches. The winning path for this struggling defense (84th or worse nationally allowed rushing and passing success rate) starts with stopping these two talents.

“He’s a guy you have to know where he is at all times,” Satterfield said of Williams. “He’s the one I was talking about at 6-5, 225, and I think he’s been going over 22 miles an hour this season. year. He is one of their faster players. We are all blessed with certain abilities and talent, but we are not usually all gifted with the ability and talent to be that tall and be able to run like a little guy. I think what they are doing is smart of them. They’re trying to find a way to get the ball to him, whether it’s on the defensive line, whether it’s a wildcat or a winger. He is one of their best players. We must be aware of it at all times.”

Turn on the fire-breathing ones and use Nipp at night. UC needs to force turnovers against one of the sloppiest teams in the country. TCU ranks 110th in the nation with 20 sacks this season, essentially sharing fumbles lost (11) and interceptions (9).

Point the crowd towards the home team, use the cold to free the ball as they did earlier in the season and the path to the bowling dance in the locker room will be clear. But they have to prove it, prove it going into this game by forcing two losses in their last four games.

“I think this time of year in Texas the temperature will probably be around 75-80 degrees. So they haven’t experienced what they’re going to experience on Saturday night yet,” Satterfield said of the predicted freezing temperatures. “I think it will definitely be cold and windy and there may be some snow. I’m probably all for it. Let’s experience one of those great winter days in Ohio. It’s definitely not going to be as comfortable as 70 degrees as a team that likes to split it and throw it around, so hopefully we can take advantage of that and be able to play on our field, in our stadium, in front of our fans on senior night. I think it will definitely be an advantage for us.”

Cincinnati has something to play for in an environment where they practice all week long. Enough for the program to take the next step.

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