Week 10 college football odds, picks: Ohio State vs. Penn State highlights early bets

I know college football has always been at the bottom of the barrel, but UConn has been really good this season. It’s because of his defense.

The Huskies rank sixth nationally in EPA/Play rating and are allowing just 4.7 yards per play. In fact, over the last three games, they are one of only three teams allowing fewer than four yards per game.

They are an elite team in both running and passing, ranking in the top 15 in both speed and passing.

Secondaries in particular will be tested in this game. Georgia State throws the ball on 57% of its offensive plays, but both quarterbacks struggled at times.

Head coach Dell McGee replaced Christian Veilleux with Zach Gibson in the last two games, but his situation wasn’t much better.

He had a PFF passing grade of less than 70 against Marshall and Appalachian State, and whenever he is under pressure, his efficiency drops significantly.

Additionally, the wind will blow at a speed of 10 km/h, which will affect the passing game.

Georgia State also struggles to move the ball effectively, ranking outside the top 100 in all rushing metrics. Meanwhile, UConn ranks in the top 15 in Stuff Rate and EPA/Rush allowed, so I don’t see how Georgia State moves the ball effectively in this game.

On the other hand, UConn uses three defenders, but Durell Robinson is the most effective.

He averages over seven yards per attempt because he is extremely difficult to bring down on first touch. In fact, he averaged 4.8 yards per carry after first touch and has a PFF Rushing Grade of 89.2, which ranks in the top 10 in college football.

He also has a stellar offensive line that boasts the second-best PFF run blocking grade in the country.

Georgia State ranks 111th in defensive yards allowed and 112th in EPA/Rush allowed, so the Huskies should be able to run the ball freely.

All three projection models project the Husky well north of touchdown, so I like their -6.5 value

Select: UConn -6.5 (FanDuel)