Key start/sit decisions in week 13

Welcome to week 13. The turkey has been stuffed down your esophagus and the dishes are piled precariously in the sink, waiting. You and I explore ours fantastic football team and drinking some scrambled eggs with extra nog. Welcome to some relaxing fantasy football words to help you set your lineups.

If you want to take my advice, it won’t be difficult to translate these thoughts into your lineup decisions. To give me a point of reference I will use FantasyPros PPR Expert Rankings rankings as my guide.

CJ Stroud, Texans at Jaguars

Stroud isn’t doing well in his rookie season, but a fully healthy Nico Collins and an easy matchup against the Jaguars should help. Last week, despite two interceptions, he threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns, rushing for 18 yards to finish QB11 against a very good Titans defense. On the other hand, the Jaguars are competing for the worst defense in the league with the Panthers because they have the worst pass defense according to EPA and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Matthew Stafford, Rams at Saints

Stafford has performed well recently, finishing QB8 or better in three of the last five games and the last two. The return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacui has certainly been a boon to his numbers.

New Orleans did a good job of stopping teams from scoring through the air, but they also allowed the third-most yards per game (276). Only the Ravens and Jaguars have allowed more yards, and I expect Stafford and company to up that number this week.

Jameis Winston, Browns at Broncos

Winston is always worth watching in fantasy due to his gunslinger lifestyle, but traveling to Denver to face the Broncos isn’t the best place to carry a gun. Denver ranks first in EPA in passing and fifth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Geno Smith, Seahawks at Jets

Smith is still on track to start the season, although he has dropped off a bit after a strong start to the season. However, I will be benching him this week when the Seahawks travel to the East Coast to face the Jets. New York has allowed the fewest completions, second-fewest passing touchdowns and third-fewest passing yards in the league.

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers at Panthers

Irving was able to acquire most of the backfield duties last week, which was a major success given his fantasy importance. He led both as a running back and as a receiver, but lost some work to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. We can’t expect a simply massive workload for Irving, but we can expect a decent effort, especially against the Panthers, who by many opinions are the worst defense in the league. And when it comes to fantasy, they are the worst because they have awarded the most fantasy points to running backs this season.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs vs. Invaders

Pacheco returns this week and seems ready to go. With Kareem Hunt performing well in his absence, they won’t have to pressure Pacheco, but this matchup should give him a decent fantasy run even if he doesn’t have a full workload. The last time these two teams met, Hunt had 22 touches and one touchdown, but was ineffective on a per-touch basis. Pacheco will be better and if this match is close, which is very likely, I think the team will rely on Pacheco in important situations.

James Conner, Cardinals in Vikings

Conner has been good this season, but last week’s game in Seattle was his worst of the year as a running back, as he ran the ball seven times for eight yards. He still scored some PPR points with five receptions for 41 yards, but this week he’ll face a great Vikings defense that hasn’t given up five receptions to any defender this season. Minnesota also ranks No. 1 in EPA against the run game and third in fantasy points allowed to running backs this year.

Nick Chubb, Browns at Broncos

Chubb isn’t his old self anymore, and certainly not for the long haul. He has a career average of 3 yards per carry while his career average is 5.4 yards per carry. Since returning to the field, he has upped his fantasy points with three touchdowns, but they have all been short-yardage efforts. This allows him to play flexibly, but the Broncos defense doesn’t allow many attempts down the line, giving up just five rushing tries, fifth-best in the league.

Darnell Mooney, Falcons vs. Chargers

On the bye, Mooney looks like he’ll be ready, and this game has the potential for some sneaky shooting. The Chargers’ pass defense was hidden behind a first-round offense early in the year, but was exposed in the second half of the season. Since Week 8, they have given up the most touchdowns and the second-most receiving yards in the league. Add Mooney and Drake London to your lineups.

Michael Pittman, Colts and Patriots

It appears the Colts will be without their starting forward, Josh Downs, this weekend. This should get Michael Pittman into starting territory. He hasn’t been at his best this season due to inconsistent quarterback play and a lingering back injury, but he was solid last week, connecting on 6 of 7 targets for 96 yards. The Patriots are a good duo as they rank tenth in allowing fantasy points to wide receivers and rank 30th in EPA against the pass.

Cedric Tillman, Browns at Broncos

Over the last few games, Tillman has given way to Jerry Jeudy and others. We’ve seen him play well and score well in fantasy, but he’s not the first target we were hoping for after he played three straight top-12 fantasy games after Jameis Wonston took over. He still has plenty of upside, but knowing he’s not the No. 1 pick and playing in Denver against one of the league’s best second basemen makes him uneasy.

Deebo Samuel, 49ers at Bills

Deebo still has the advantagebut it didn’t appear as often as in the past. Since missing Week 3 with an injury, he has finished higher than WR24 only once. Last week, with Brandon Allen leading the way, he caught just 1 of 4 passes for 21 yards. He also has just two touchdowns on the season and none since Week 6. The match will take place in Orchard Park, where the temperature is above 20 degrees, gusty winds and possible snowfall.

The Bills are also strong in the passing game and rank eighth in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. If Allen starts, I’ll outshine Deebo. If Purdy starts, I would give him a flex position if you’re playing for upside quarterbacks.

Cade Otton, Buccaneers at Panthers

Otton didn’t do well in Mike Evans’ first game back, catching one pass for 30 yards. With Evans back, we can’t expect Otto to have the crazy task he had without him, but we can also expect more than one reception. He has the best tight end game in the league this week against the Panthers, as the Panthers have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Noah Gray, Chiefs vs. Raiders

Gray won’t take over from Travis Kelce on the roster, but everyone in Kansas City is working to improve their offense heading into the playoffs. So Gray will still be a part of the offense, but he also won’t be scoring two touchdowns per game like he has been doing the last two weeks.

This matchup is a strong one for the Chiefs as the Raiders rank 30th in fantasy points at the position. Gray is a risk, but there’s no doubt that Patrick Mahomes trusts him

Zach Ertz, Commanders vs. Titans

The Titans’ defense has been strong against tight ends this season, ranking seventh in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Ertz gets so much work in the red zone that a touchdown isn’t out of the question, but I expect the commanders will have trouble moving the ball against this defense.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons vs. Chargers

Pitts remains an enigma because he will make some big plays that will keep us interested, but then he will catch one pass for 11 yards. He faces a tough matchup this week against the Chargers, who have scored one touchdown at the position and have the eighth-best mark in fantasy points allowed by tight ends.