Early voting shows strong Republican mobilization in swing states | Elections 2024

The campaign is in its final phase. Both Donald Trump AND Kamala Harris they embark on a tour of key swing states where the outcome of the election will likely be decided. But for 42 million Americans, the choice has already been made: They cast their ballots in person or by mail using early voting options provided by their states. This number is lower than in 2020, which saw record early voting due to the pandemic.

Current data shows large early turnout among Republican-registered voters, especially in swing states, though it’s unclear what that means for the final tally. Unlike in 2020, when Trump and Republicans expressed doubts about voting by mail and urged supporters to vote in person on Election Day, this time they are actively promoting early voting.

In the United States, each state organizes its own voting process, guided by minimum requirements set by federal law. Rules and deadlines for early mail-in and in-person voting vary, as do laws regarding voter registration, identification, ballot formats and vote-counting methods. Some states make registering and voting easy, while others are poorly organized, often resulting in long lines. Published information about early voting also varies; some provide data on party affiliation—Republican, Democratic, or Independent—while others do not. Similarly, some states report data on voter age, gender and race, although most do not disclose this information. As a result, the overall picture remains blurry.

According to the latest data collected by the University of Florida’s Elections Lab, 42 million Americans voted early. That represents 27% of the 155 million U.S. voters who turned out in the 2020 election, though that number is still significantly lower than the number of people who voted four years ago at the same point in the election cycle.

So far, 21.1 million citizens have cast their votes in person at designated polling stations, and another 21.3 million votes have been cast by post – this method was requested by over 65 million people. These early voting numbers are the second highest on record. In 2020, the pandemic led to unprecedented levels of early voting as states implemented measures to minimize the risk of contagion – many of which are still in place today. About 70% of votes in these elections were cast early or by mail.

Democrats currently lead in the total number of registered voters with 8.4 million ballots, representing 40% of those identified. However, their advantage over Republicans decreased significantly compared to 2020 – Republicans cast 7.6 million votes, which is 36% of all votes. Additionally, 4.8 million citizens – 24% of the total – identified themselves as independent, not registered in any party or affiliated with smaller parties. Please remember that being registered with a party does not guarantee that voters will support it. Moreover, data on more than 20 million voters is unavailable because they voted in states that do not disclose party affiliation.

While early voting has declined across the country, it remains at or above levels seen four years ago in seven battleground states. This is where Republicans are especially increasing their mobilization compared to 2020. During the last election campaign, Trump promoted conspiracy theories about the rigging of postal voting and urged voters to cast their ballots on election day. This year, however, he is both celebrating and encouraging early voting, though not always.

“We are setting all-time records for votes. Early voting is record breaking (sic!). Trump’s people are going out and voting like crazy. And we usually get a big vote at the end.” – the former president said on Friday at a rally in Traverse City, Michigan. “It will be the greatest political victory in the history of our country.”

Of the seven swing states, three do not make it easy for voters to register their political affiliation: Georgia, where turnout was record-breaking, Michiganand Wisconsin. In North Carolina Arizona and Nevada are led by Republicans – unlike in 2020. In turn, in Pennsylvania, the Democratic advantage is much smaller than in 2020.

In North Carolina, where records are set despite logistical challenges in the wake of Hurricane Helene recovery efforts, Republicans cast 940,000 votes (34.3%), Democrats 910,000 (33.2%), and Independents 891,000. In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by just 1.3 points, despite that Democrats had a 15-point lead in early voting at this point.

Arizona shows an even more pronounced trend. Current numbers show 542,000 Republican votes (42%) compared to 454,000 Democratic votes (35%) and 297,000 Independent votes (23%). This is a significant contrast to the 10-point lead Democrats enjoyed in 2020, when Joe Biden won Arizona by just 10,457 votes.

A similar trend is emerging in Nevada, where Republicans have erased Democrats’ earlier lead of more than 10 points and now lead by five points. Currently, 244,000 Republicans (40%) have cast ballots compared to 213,000 Democrats (35%) and 155,000 independents (25%). In 2020, Biden won the state by 2.4 points.

IN PennsylvaniaDemocrats, however, maintain a clear advantage by using a postal-only system because there is no provision for early in-person voting. This method, heavily criticized by Republicans in the past, is now being pushed by the party. Of the ballots received in this key state, 762,000 (59.4%) were from registered Democrats, 390,000 (30.4%) were from Republicans and 130,000 (10.2%) were from independents.

While this may seem like a success for Democrats, it’s worth noting that in 2020, they had a similar margin on Election Day, with a favorable split of about 70-20%. Ultimately, Biden won Pennsylvania by just one point after all the votes were counted. Vote counting may be slightly faster this year than in 2020, when absentee ballots were accepted up to three days after Election Day. This time the deadline is November 5 at 8 p.m.

The increase in early voting among Republicans, combined with Trump’s improved position in polls and betting markets, as well as favorable trends in the Treasury and dollar markets, appear to be tipping the scales slightly in the former president’s favor. But the disruptions caused by Covid-19 four years ago and a 180-degree shift in Republican leadership on early voting mean these numbers should be analyzed with caution. The counting, including the counting of early votes, will not begin until Election Day, and it is then or in the following days that the winner will be determined.

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