AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Pennsylvania on Election Day

WASHINGTON — Pennsylvania voters are almost certain to play a key role in the Nov. 5 general election, weighing in on control of the White House and both houses of Congress and the state Legislature.

With 19 electoral votes, the Commonwealth of Nations is the biggest prize among battlefield states and an important element in the path to victory in both campaigns. Both Democratic vice presidents Kamala Harrisformer president of the Republican Party Donald Trump and their running mates did it frequent visits for the state since being nominated by their parties, including events in Allentown, Scranton, State College, Harrisburg and others that occurred during the last week of October. Harris and Trump I met for the first time in Philadelphia during their only debate in September.

Pennsylvania was one of three “blue wall” swing states that narrowly won for Trump in 2016, after nearly 30 years of voting for Democratic presidential candidates; the others are Michigan and Wisconsin. Four years later, Democrat Joe Biden he returned all three states to the Democrats, winning Pennsylvania by about 80,000 out of more than 6.9 million votes cast. States remain the top electoral prizes this year.

In US Senate raceincumbent Democrat Bob Casey looking for fourth term against Republicans Dave McCormick. Casey, the son and namesake of a former two-term governor, has one of the most recognizable names in state politics, but this year he faces the toughest Senate race of his career. The seat is crucial to Democrats’ hopes of maintaining control of the narrowly divided chamber. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Army combat veteran, was running for a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania in 2022, but lost the GOP nomination to Mehmet Oz, who he continued to lose to Democrat John Fetterman.

Later in the voting, several competitive races could play a role in determining control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In the 7th Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild is seeking a fourth full term against Republican Ryan Mackenzie. In the neighboring 8th Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright is running for a seventh term against Republican Robert Bresnahan. In 2020, the 7th District in eastern Pennsylvania narrowly supported Biden, while voters in the 8th District, which includes Biden’s hometown of Scranton, preferred Trump.

In race for control of the state legislatureDemocrats defend a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives they won in 2022 for the first time in 12 years and have successfully defended themselves in several special elections since then. All 203 House of Representatives seats and half of the state Senate’s 50 seats will be up for election this year. Republicans have a majority in the state Senate.

Here’s what to expect from the 2024 Pennsylvania elections:

November 5.

8:00 p.m. Eastern time.

19 were awarded to the statewide winner.

President: Harris (no) vs. Trump (right) vs. Chase Oliver (libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (green).

U.S. Senate: Casey (no) vs. McCormick (R) and three others.

7th Congressional District: Wild (D) vs. Mackenzie (D).

8th Congressional District: Cartwright (no) vs. Bresnahan (R).

United States House of Representatives, Attorney General, Auditor General, Treasurer, State Senate, and State House.

Several factors contribute to the relatively slow vote counting process in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania law requires election officials to do this wait until 7 a.m. EST on Election Day before they start processing mail-in ballots and preparing them for counting. The announcement of the results of postal voting it cannot start before the polls close. Due to the total number of absentee ballots – they accounted for almost a quarter of all votes in the 2022 midterm elections – and the varying amount of time it took the state’s 67 counties to count those votes, it could take several days to determine a winner in the highly competitive race, so as was the case in the 2020 presidential election.

The first voting results reported after polls close are expected to come from postal ballots. Results later in the evening are expected to be a mix of votes cast by mail and in person on Election Day. As vote counting continues into the day after Election Day and beyond, voting results are again expected to come primarily from mail-in ballots.

Overall, mail-in votes have favored Democrats since the introduction of early mail-in voting has become highly politicized during the 2020 elections. That means a Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in vote counts in preliminary voting reports after polls close, even though the race could tighten significantly as more votes are counted.

In 2020, Biden took an early, temporary lead after mail-in voting results began to be released shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. ET. Around 10 p.m. EST, Trump took the lead as more Election Day voting results were released. Early Wednesday morning, Trump led Biden by almost 700,000 votes, but that lead gradually narrowed as more mail-in ballots were counted. Ultimately, Biden took the lead on Friday morning.