AP decision notes: What to expect in Michigan on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Michigan could play a decisive role in the presidential election for the third straight year as its voters decide competitive races that could tilt the balance of power in both houses of Congress as well as the state House of Representatives.

The state was one of three presidential battlegrounds, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that narrowly lost to Republicans Donald Trump in 2016, after nearly 30 years of supporting Democrats in the presidential elections. Four years later, Democrat Joe Biden he returned all three states to the Democrats, with a lead in Michigan of about 154,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million votes cast.

Trump and the Democratic vice president Kamala Harris To have ran an intense campaign in pursuit of Michigan’s 15 electoral votes since being nominated by their parties, with a focus on vote-rich Detroit and its suburbs and Kent County to the west, home to Grand Rapids and a key swing area of ​​the state.

In the US Senate, the Democratic Republic of the USA. Elisa Slotkin and republican Mike Rogers will run to replace incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, whose decision to retire after five terms turned what was once a safe seat for Democrats into an upward opportunity for Republicans. Rogers, a former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, was hired after his retirement enter the racegiving Michigan Republicans chance end a 24-year drought in U.S. Senate races.

Since her first election in 2018, Slotkin has kept her Lansing-area swing district in Democratic hands. Running to replace her in the 7th Congressional District are Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, both former state senators. Voters in the 7th District narrowly supported Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In the 8th District, which includes Flint and Saginaw, Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican Paul Junge are running to replace Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee, who is not to run for a seventh term. McDonald Rivet is a state senator and Junge is a former prosecutor and local news anchor who lost to Kildee in 2022.

In the state legislature, Democrats are fighting back narrow majority in the House of Representatives they won in 2022 and won back in April later winning the special election fill some vacancies. All 110 state House seats are up for election this year. State legislative campaign organizations in both national parties have named the Michigan State House as one of their top priorities for November. Democrats also hold a slim majority in the state Senate, but those seats won’t be up for election until 2026.

Here’s what to expect from the 2024 Michigan elections:

November 5.

8:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. Eastern time. Michigan spans two time zones, so most of the state will begin reporting results, while some voters in the Upper Peninsula will cast ballots until 9 p.m. EST.

15 awarded to statewide winner.

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Randall Terry (US Taxpayer Party) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Natural Law Party) vs. Joseph Kishore vs. Cornel West.

U.S. Senate: Elissa Slotkin (R) vs. Mike Rogers (R) and four others.

7th Congressional District: Curtis Hertel (N) vs. Tom Barrett (R) and one other.

8th Congressional District: Kristen McDonald Rivet (N) vs. Paul Junge (R) and four others.

United States House of Representatives, State Supreme Court, State House.

AND new law gives local election officials more time to process and tabulate absentee ballotswhich should help alleviate the confusion that slowed vote counting in the 2020 presidential election.

Cities and towns with at least 5,000 residents can begin processing and tabulating ballots up to eight days before Election Day, while smaller jurisdictions can begin the morning before Election Day.

In 2020, more than 3.1 million voters returned their ballots by mail, representing approximately 56% of all ballots cast. State law at the time prohibited election workers from opening envelopes and preparing ballots for counting until the night before Election Day. Trump took an early lead in vote counting on election night, but that lead began to decline overnight and early Wednesday morning, with Biden taking the lead later that afternoon.

The change in law may result in faster disclosure of the total number of votes cast by correspondence and may alleviate the so-called “red mirage” that Trump falsely claimed was evidence of voter fraud in Michigan and several other key states.

Key counties to watch in Michigan-wide elections include Wayne (Detroit seat), Oakland, Macomb, Kent (Grand Rapids seat), Genesee (Flint seat), and Washtenaw (Ann Arbor seat).

The Associated Press does not make predictions and will announce the winner only when it determines there is no scenario that would allow the remaining candidates to close the gap. If the race is not called, the AP will continue to report on any significant developments, such as candidates making concessions or declaring victory. This will allow the AP to clarify that it has not yet announced a winner and explain why.

In statewide races in Michigan, a recount occurs automatically if the difference between the top two candidates is 2,000 votes or fewer. Candidates can request and pay for a recount regardless of vote margin, and the state covers the costs if the recount changes the result. State party chairs can request recounts in state legislative races if the margin is less than 500 votes in state Senate races and less than 200 votes in state House races. The AP may declare the winner of a recount-eligible race if it determines the margin is too large to recount the result or legally challenge it. AND new act on re-settlement signed by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in July will not take effect until after the 2024 presidential election.

Although polls close at 8 p.m. ET in most of the state, the AP will not declare a winner until the final polls close at 9 p.m. ET. In the 2022 gubernatorial election, the AP calculated that by the time the last polls closed in the state, the AP had collected about 8% of the total votes.

2020: Biden (D) 51%, Trump (R) 48%, AP call: Wednesday, November 4, 2020, 5:58 pm ET.

Registered voters: 8,437,177 (as of October 17, 2024).

Turnout in the 2020 presidential election: 68% of registered voters.

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: approximately 59% of total votes.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: approximately 42% of total votes.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: see AP Track voting in advance.

First votes reported, November 3, 2020, 8:08 PM ET.

As of midnight EST, approximately 45% of all votes cast had been reported.

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Associated Press writers Hannah Fingerhut, Tom Krisher and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.

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