CNN data guru details ‘signs’ pointing to Trump victory: If he wins, ‘it will be obvious’

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten played down signs pointing to a potential victory for former President Trump next week.

Enten mentioned that the percentage of people who are satisfied with the current direction of the country, President Biden’s current approval numbers and strong voter registration Republican numbers in swing states signal Trump’s re-election next week.

“If the Republicans win next week and Donald Trump wins next week, the signs will be obvious from the beginning,” Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Wednesday morning.

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Enten began by discussing how Vice President Kamala Harris is less likely to win because she is in office at a time when only 28 percent of Americans believe the country is on the right track.

He said that in the modern political era – since 1980 – the average percentage of Americans who think the country is on the right track when an incumbent loses is 25 percent. The average incumbent winning rate is 42%.

Recalling the 28 percent figure, he said: “That doesn’t look anything like 42 percent at all… Taken together, very few Americans believe that the country is on the right track at this particular point in time.” “It is much more likely to track a ruling party defeat than a win.”

Enten then broke the second mark – historically, a party whose president has a low net approval rating is not succeeded by a candidate from the same party.

“So I went back and looked around. OK, was this a successor from the same party when the president’s net rating was negative at this point, which Joe Biden certainly has? It is 15 points below par.”

Enten pointed out that George W. Bush, who had a negative net rating in 2008, was succeeded by Democratic President Barack Obama. The same phrase applies to the end of former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s term, which was followed by the term of Republican Richard Nixon. It was similar at the end of Harry Truman’s presidency in 1952.

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“Harry S. Truman – his endorsements were in the 20s, if not the teens. Did a Democrat replace Harry S. Truman in 1952? In my memory, no,” he said, adding that Republican Dwight Eisenhower replaced Truman.

He summarized the second sign pointing to a Trump victory by stating, “So the bottom line is, for Kamala Harris to win, she would have to break history and become a Democrat to replace Joe Biden when Biden’s approval rating is well below par at this point.” “

Enten’s third signal was that the number of Republican voters was gaining ground compared to the number of Democratic voters in swing states. “So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the number of Democrats compared to the number of Republicans has gone down,” the reporter declared.

He then summarized the entire set of findings, stating: “What we would look at is that the right direction is very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating is very low, and Republicans are really keeping the numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”

Enten’s opinion comes a day after he warned that the polls could be like that underestimating Harris’ performance. He argued Tuesday that polls ahead of the 2022 midterm elections are underestimating Democratic support by about four points, and said that may be the case for Harris’ numbers right now, which show her fundamentally aligned with Trump.

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