Will the Jewish vote in swing states determine the presidency?

The 1960 presidential election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon was a closely contested one. Kennedy attributed his narrow victory to a specific voter: “I know I was elected because of the Jewish vote,” he told Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion. “I owe them my choice.”

The The 2024 elections are also difficultand once again it is not impossible that Jews in Pennsylvania, as well as in other swing states, may decide who will be the next president.

According to data collected by the Jewish Virtual Library, 82% of Jews voted for Kennedy then, compared with 60% of Jews who voted for Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson four years earlier, in 1956. (The overall vote was 47% for Kennedy in 1960 and 40% for Stevenson in 1956). The concentration of these Jewish voters in a few swing states helped Kennedy win the presidency.

Today’s circumstances are the opposite: in 1960, the idea was for Democrats to win over Jewish voters. In 2024, it’s about Democrats retaining Jewish voters.

Almost 70% of Jews voted in favor Joe Biden in 2020. Research shows that in 2024 this number will be lower – it is not known to what extent and in which countries.

Last month, PRESIDENTIAL candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris participated in ABC’s presidential debate in Philadelphia. One half of the country will be happy and bragging, and the other half will be disappointed, sa (Source: BRIAN SNYDER/REUTERS)

At the heart of this uncertainty is the million-dollar question: Will Jewish Democratic voters in 2024 vote based on the issue of Israel?

Jill Smith, a Democratic donor, puts the issue into perspective: “Other than the ultra-Orthodox, most Jews do not vote on a single issue.”

Smith, who is a member of the Genesis Prize Committee, emphasizes that American Jews address issues that concern them as Americans: “The Dobbs decision (overturning Roe v. Wade)applies to all women, including Jewish women. So abortion rights voters definitely do not support (Donald) Trump.”

But Abe Katsman, who analyzes the Jewish vote, points to episodes in history when Jews put aside other pressing issues and voted largely based on the issue of Israel: “In 1980, (President Jimmy) Carter ran for a second term with a terrible attitude towards Israel and a foreign policy team that was downright hostile. Carter dropped from 71% of the Jewish vote in 1976 to just 45%. Katsman, who serves as a Republican adviser abroad in Israel, attributes the decline to the Israeli issue.

Smith believes things are different this election because Trump himself is discouraging Jews from voting for him: “Jews are afraid of Project 2025, Trump’s declaration of becoming a dictator, his intention to go after his enemies and his generally dark view of what is happening in America.”

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However, the Jewish vote in 2024 may not depend on Republican “voter winning” but on Democratic “voter retention”; and, as history shows, these are not just two sides of the same coin.

Four years after Kennedy’s victory, his Democratic successor, Lyndon Johnson, ran for re-election. Although white Southerners had voted Democratic in the past, Johnson’s Civil Rights Act infuriated many of them.

Democratic campaign strategists relied on Johnson’s Southern origins and personality, as well as voter loyalty, but white Southerners stunned the Democrats and left the party. They never came back.

But unlike the Jews of 1960 who became “Kennedy Jews,” the white Southerners of 1964 did not become “Goldwater Southerners.” They voted against Johnson and the Democrats, not for Barry Goldwater, the Republican candidate. Indeed, in subsequent elections this was largely manifested in Southerners voting for third-party candidates and also staying home.

Jewish voters do not support Trump, but they are not enthusiastic about Harris

A similar dynamic is likely at play in the 2024 election with Jewish Democratic voters. They are not leaning toward Trump, but they may feel increasingly uncomfortable with Kamala Harris and the Democrats’ stance on Israel and the Western attack on Judaism. Harris’ recent “It’s true” comment in response to anti-Semitic slurs that Jews in Israel are committing genocide is the latest move that Republicans hope will prevent Jews from voting for her.

But Democratic strategists believe such comments will not be enough to discourage Jewish voters. “Kamala has been clear: Israel is our ally and we will always support its right to defend itself,” Smith says. “We will continue to send aid… There may be philosophical differences in war tactics (e.g., prioritization of remaining hostages). But the United States under Harris will never abandon our support.”

Katsman isn’t sure: “Many lifelong Democrats have already come to terms with the fact that they won’t vote Democratic this year. Some people will leave blank ballots instead of voting for Trump. Others will vote Republican. Because of October 7 and the increase in hostility towards Israel, Jews feel much more Jewish than they did 12 months ago, and this will be reflected in their votes.”

Which goes back to the similarity to the 1960 election:

The way Kennedy chose to reward American Jews was to do something for Israel. As Ben-Gurion’s biographer, Michael Bar-Zohar, reports, Kennedy was so adamant on this point that he asked Ben-Gurion what he should do (Ben-Gurion replied, “You should do what is best for the free world”).

Some American Jews today would feel uncomfortable with the equation created by Kennedy, because the Jewish vote for Kennedy in 1960 had little to do with the issue of Israel.

However, in 2024, it is abundantly clear that if Trump wins because of Democratic Jews voting for him, it will certainly be because of the Israel issue.

The writer is the author of the new book The Assault on Judaism: The Existential Threat Is Coming from the West (TheAssulatonJudaism.com). He is the chairman of the Judaism 3.0 Think Tank and the author of the book Judaism 3.0: Transforming Judaism into Zionism.