Three reasons why the Packers could lose to the Jaguars

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers score is 5-2. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-5.

Big advantage for Green Bay, right?

Not so fast. With an NFC North matchup against the powerhouse Detroit Lions looming, the Packers should remain vigilant on Sunday.

The Jaguars have won two of their last three games, and three of their losses were by five points or less. The Jaguars are no joke, and if the Packers look past them, the Jaguars will have the last laugh.

Here are three reasons why the Packers could be upset on Sunday.

The Jaguars’ run game and run defense

On both sides of the ball, Jacksonville has the advantage in the ground game.

Offensively, the Jaguars rank fourth in the NFL with 5.12 yards per rushing attempt. They didn’t miss Travis Etienne one bit because Tank Bigsby was exceptional. Among running backs, his 6.19 yards per carry trails only Baltimore’s Derrick Henry.

Bigsby is one of 42 runners with at least 50 rushing attempts. He ranks first with 4.58 yards after contact per carry, according to Pro Football Focus. While he ranks 27th with 67 rushing attempts, he is fourth with 25 missed tackles. He has surpassed 100 rushing yards in two of the Jaguars’ wins in the past three weeks and had two touchdowns in both games.

“I love the way he runs,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “His running style is very, very, very physical. He’s fast. He hits the hole, so we have to do a great job of not letting him go. You need to wear many hats at a prom.

“Obviously, he’s been really productive since he got there. You don’t average 6 yards by doing nothing. I mean, he’s physical, he makes people miss him, he has a lot of clips on tape that are impressive.

The Packers rank a solid ninth with 4.34 yards per carry allowed. Texas’ Joe Mixon had 115 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week, but Green Bay kept him under wraps in the second half.

“Honestly, we can fix all of this,” Packers linebacker Kenny Clark said. “I think some players made a lot of plays in the running game, but they certainly weren’t happy with the distance and average scores he put up. We definitely need to clean this up. We have a better plan for that this week.”

Stopping your run is important for obvious reasons. Additionally, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is much better at passing down the field than he is with standard passes. On his downfield passes, he completed 69.6 percent of his passes and averaged 10.3 yards per attempt. On regular passes, it’s 59.4 percent and 6.1 yards per attempt.

Defensively, the Jaguars were also strong, ranking seventh with 4.15 yards per carry allowed. It’s going to be a power versus strength matchup with the Jaguars. strengthened by the return of stud defender Foye Oluokunfacing Packers running back Josh Jacobs, who is sixth at 4.98 yards per carry.

Jacksonville’s only real chance on defense is to stop Jacobs and give the Packers second, third and long, as his pass defense has been under scrutiny all season.

Therefore, the first and 10th points will be crucial because they will set the stage for everything else.

In games one and ten, Jacksonville’s offense is averaging 5.14 yards per carry, while the defense is allowing just 3.11 yards per carry.

Green Bay, meanwhile, had a league-high 113 first-and-10 completions and gained 4.65 yards per completion. The defense, however, allowed 5.02 yards per carry.

Can anyone stop Brian Thomas?

In this year’s draft, the Cardinals selected Marvin Harrison, the Giants selected Malik Nabers and the Bears selected Rome Odunze in the top 10. The Jaguars selected Brian Thomas with the 23rd pick.

Thomas did great. In the rookie class, he is second with 30 receptions (Nabers has 39), first with 513 yards (Nabers has 427), second with 17.1 yards per catch (Keon Coleman’s average with the Bills is 20.4), first with 2.60 yards per catch route (Nabers has a 2.25 average according to PFF) and second with three touchdowns (Nabers has four touchdowns).

At 6 feet 4 inches and 205 pounds, he is a huge threat. On passes thrown more than 20 yards down the field, he was 6 of 11 for 283 yards and two touchdowns, according to PFF. No other rookie has made more than three deep receptions and has more yards on deep passes than Harrison, Nabers and Odunze combined.

He caught a 58-yard bomb against New England last week despite excellent coverage by Patriots standout Christian Gonzalez.

“I’ve always said there’s no defense against a perfect ball, especially when a guy can catch the ball unbelievably, which he’s certainly capable of,” LaFleur said. “I was very impressed. Every week (he’s) on the reel making these explosive profits.

“I think the rookie needs to come in and show the type of production he has done and his explosiveness. I mean, we really liked him coming out of the draft, so I was very impressed with his play.

There is no doubt that Lawrence will give him several chances, regardless of whether his opponent is Jaire Alexander or Keisean Nixon, and whether basketball safety Xavier McKinney is nearby.

“A freshman, a 10th-year player, it doesn’t matter. If our player can play the field, we’ll give him a chance,” Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor told reporters this week. “I don’t know what they say to Christian Gonzalez in the boardroom: ‘You could have done it differently.’ This was probably the best coverage you could get.

“It was a huge effort to complete the catch and get the ball back at the end. This gives you confidence. The more guys produce in those situations, the more you want to put him in those situations. We think he can certainly do it.”

Special Teams

Green Bay’s special teams were either really good or really bad in last week’s win over Houston. Against the Jaguars, they will have to play much better in every phase.

With former returning All-Pro Devin Duvernay on injured reserve, Jaguars receiver Parker Washington had a 96-yard touchdown in the victory over New England. In addition to the 73-yard return in the preseason, the Packers’ coverage units will need to stay focused on the play.

“He has incredible speed,” said Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia. “When you make a big return like that, it definitely builds a sense of confidence, not only in yourself but in your blockers, in your plan to keep it going.

“So this is a challenge for us. Certainly the challenge for Daniel (Whelan) is where he puts the ball, how he deals with the attack, depending on what he’s going to do with ball placement and marking. This is a big challenge. They have a good return match.”

Jaguars guard Cam Little is making 11 of 12 field goals, and guard Logan Cooke is second in net average (44.9) with 12 punts inside the 20 and zero touchbacks.

Whelan had an incredible game last week, and Brandon McManus, who kicked for the Jaguars last year, made the game-winning kick in his Packers debut.

Little only allowed four comebacks in the game, so he will likely neutralize Nixon.

As always he should be a special teams target, just don’t lose the game. The Packers came way too close to losing last week.

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The #Packers they have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL. The #Jaguarspass defense is terrible.

This is part of the story for three reasons why the Packers will win this week. https://t.co/krO7ATBWwm

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 26, 2024