Netanyahu counts on Trump’s triumph – Middle East and Africa

Trump’s last term was good for Netanyahu, and ahead of the November 5 vote, the former president sent mixed signals about his Middle East policy.

His remarks ranged from encouraging Netanyahu to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities – which Israel refrained from doing during Saturday’s attacks – to criticizing the Israeli leader for saying that “the October 7 attack would never have happened if I were president” and that he would pressure Israel to ending wars.

But analysts say this unclear policy, coupled with his campaign slogan “Make America Great Again,” is what Netanyahu is counting on.

As an isolationist, Trump as a Republican president could give Netanyahu greater freedom to manage the conflicts that continue to rage in Gaza and Lebanon.

“One of Netanyahu’s milestones is the US elections. He is praying for Trump’s victory, which he believes will give him a lot of freedom of movement, allowing him to do what he wants,” Gidon Rahat, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told AFP.

Aviv Bushinsky, a political commentator and Netanyahu’s former chief of staff, said similarly: “His experience with Republicans has been very good… unlike Democrats, who are much tougher on him.”

Close personal relationships

In his 17 years as prime minister, Netanyahu has only worked with one Republican Party leader, Trump.

During his presidency, Trump made several moves that strengthened Netanyahu’s position at home while upending some long-standing U.S. policies toward Israel, its conflict with the Palestinians and the wider region.

The Republican president moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, which Israel claims is its undivided capital, recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights and oversaw the normalization of relations between the three Arab states and Israel.

Trump also withdrew from the landmark nuclear deal with Israel’s archenemy Iran and reimposed tough economic sanctions on the Islamic republic.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has long maintained a frosty relationship with Netanyahu despite insisting on his “iron support” for Israel.

Unlike Trump, Biden warned Netanyahu against striking Iran’s oil production facilities and nuclear facilities.

Trump and Netanyahu also have a close personal relationship, and the former US president boasted this week of frequent phone calls with the Israeli prime minister.

“We have a very good relationship,” Trump said at a rally in Georgia. “We will work very closely with them.”

These positive aspects will outweigh any concerns, Bushinsky said.

“I think Netanyahu would be willing to take the risk of Trump’s unpredictability,” he said.

Popular in Israel

Trump is popular not only among Netanyahu, but also among the Israeli public.

A September poll by Mitvim, the Israel Institute for Regional Foreign Policy, found that 68 percent of Israelis see Trump as the candidate who best serves Israel’s interests.

Only 14 percent elected Vice President Kamala Harris, even though she has repeatedly declared her support for Israel and its right to self-defense.

“In Israel, more than in any other liberal democracy outside the United States, Trump is more popular than Harris,” said Nadav Tamir, a former Israeli diplomat in the United States and a Mitvim board member.

According to Tamir, the new Trump administration may bring surprises.

The former president increasingly surrounded himself with Republicans “who are isolationists and do not want America to be the leader of the free world or international alliances,” he said.

‘Distrust’

There is little enthusiasm among Palestinians for either candidate, said Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian political scientist and pollster.

“Palestinians do not trust both candidates and see little difference between them,” he said.

Taher al-Nunu, a Hamas official, told AFP that he believed “successive US administrations have always been biased” towards Israel.

On the street, Palestinians said that no matter who wins, life in their territories will not improve.

“I do not believe that the American elections will have a positive impact on our political reality,” said Leen Bassem, a 21-year-old student at Birzeit University in the occupied West Bank.

Hassan Anwar, 42, an audio engineer, also said he did not believe there was any difference “because American policy is absolutely clear on support and support for Israel.”