Forecasts of spreads and final results

After two days off and over a week since their last home game, the Atlanta Hawks return to State Farm Arena tonight to take on the Dallas Mavericks. It won’t be a fight between Luka Doncic and Trae Young, but it’s still an intriguing match. Atlanta is looking to snap a two-game losing streak, while Dallas is playing its second straight game. The Mavericks lost in overtime last night in Miami, and the Hawks have the rest of the lead.

The Hawks currently rank 28th in PPG allowed, 18th in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in three-point shooting percentage allowed and 30th in three-point shooting percentage allowed. According to the Cleaning the Glass Index, Atlanta ranks 20th in points per 100 possessions and 30th in effective field goal percentage.

Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been great in the last two games, and this year Atlanta will face one of the best defenses in the NBA. The Hawks were unable to score 100 points in their loss to Golden State, and they had a terrible first half against Chicago on Friday. The team has trouble shooting and keeping distance, so they will need to solve this problem on offense.

The Hawks desperately need Trae Young to start playing at an NBA level. It won’t solve all of this team’s offensive problems, but it could help. Young had 25 points and 13 assists against the Bulls, but most of his effectiveness came in the second half when the game was out of reach.

After a great run of games offensively and defensively, Dyson Daniels struggled to get the ball, but the defense is still great. He shot 3-14 from the field in Friday’s game against Chicago and couldn’t find consistency with his three-point shot. The Hawks are counting on him to provide that, and tonight he’ll be tasked with guarding Kyrie Irving.

Zaccharie Risacher has been in the Hawks’ starting lineup for most of the season, but he struggled to hit the ball and played just 16 minutes against Chicago on Friday. Would Quin Snyder consider returning De’Andre Hunter to the lineup? He played nearly 30 minutes on Friday and is doing well this season, especially in attack. This is something that should be monitored in the future.

Jalen Johnson has 25 points and 13 rebounds against the Bulls and will be counted on for tonight’s game against Dallas. Defensively, Atlanta needs more from Johnson, but he has shaken off a slow start and is playing well.

The center position has been underwhelming for Atlanta this season, but Clint Caplea is having his best offensive game of the season. He scored 21 points and had 11 rebounds in Friday’s loss and will be a key player tonight against the center duo of Dereck Lively and Daniels Gafford. Onyeka Okongwu is struggling on both ends of the floor, and the Hawks have Larry Nance, but Nance doesn’t play often and didn’t get a chance to play in Friday’s game against Chicago.

Against the Bulls, Snyder primarily used a nine-man rotation with Kobe Bufkin, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Okongwu and Hunter coming off the bench. Perhaps the only good thing to come out of Friday’s defeat was that Bogdanovic finally looked like himself again. He scored 16 points and shot 4-8 from three for the game, and after two bad games to start the year, he finally performed well. Bufkin is one of the players who has really struggled this year, but he needs to be given time to think things through. Will this be the rotation for Atlanta today, or will guys like VIt Krejci and Garrison Matthews get more minutes?

While the record may not indicate it, the numbers show that the Dalls are one of the NBA’s elite teams. The Mavericks are 9th in PPG, 8th in FG%, 22nd in three-point shooting, 22nd in 3P%, 18th in free throws, 9th in rebounds and 8th in turnovers. According to Cleaning the Glass, Dallas ranks 4th in points per 100 possessions, 10th in effective field goal percentage, 6th in turnover percentage, 14th in offensive rebounding and 20th in free throw rate. Defensively, this looks like the best defense Dallas has had in years. They currently rank 9th in PPG allowed, 5th in FG% allowed, 9th in three-pointers allowed, and 10th in three-point percentage. According to Cleaning the Glass, Dallas ranks 7th in points per 100 possessions and 4th in effective field goal percentage.

According to Fanduel SportsbookAtlanta is a three-point favorite over the Mavericks today, with the total currently sitting at 237.5.

Forecast

There are some things in the Hawks’ favor in tonight’s game. They have the advantage the rest of the way, and Dallas will be without Doncic, which hurts their offense. Still, it’s hard to trust the Hawks, even at home when they’re playing a solid team. If they can avoid Dallas killing them from the three-point line, this will be a winnable game. But until they do that, it’s hard to pick them to beat a decent opponent, which is why I’m playing the Mavericks tonight.

Final score: Mavs 118, Hawks 113

Additional links:

Hawks vs Mavericks: game preview, injury report, betting odds, expected starting lineups for today’s game

New blockbuster trade idea sends Smart to Bucks, Hawks Land promising 6’11 Big Man with Grizzlies

Injury Report: Atlanta Hawks vs. Dallas Mavericks