The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah calms one front, but Gaza sees no end to the war

JERUSALEM – For many people in the Middle East Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came as a relief: it was the first major sign of progress in the region since the war began more than a year ago.

But for the Palestinians in Gaza and the families of the hostages held in that territory, a message appeared only to inaugurate a new, grim period of conflict there. For them, it meant another missed opportunity to end the fighting that had dragged on for almost 14 months.

The Palestinians had hoped that any ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah would also include a truce in Gaza. Families of people kidnapped when Hamas-led militants stormed southern Israel Meanwhile, in October 2023, they wanted part of the deal to include the return of loved ones. Instead, there was a ceasefire is limited only to the fighting in Lebanon.

“We believe this is a missed opportunity to connect the hostages in the agreement signed today,” said Ruby Chen, whose son, Itay Chen, was taken hostage from an Israeli military base and presumed dead.

Although the two wars were related, they were very different from each other. In Lebanon, Israel said its goal was to expel Hezbollah from the two countries’ shared border and end the militant group’s barrages into northern Israel. Cease-fire which entered into force on Wednesday is intended to do so.

Israel’s goals in Gaza are more extensive. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that Hamas be completely destroyed and that Israel must retain permanent control over parts of the territory. Months of talks have failed to lead Netanyahu to back down from these demands or convince Hamas to release the hostages on these terms.

For Palestinians in Gaza, this means continued misery as a result of the Israeli campaign that is happening they destroyed much of the territory and drove almost the entire population from their homes. Hundreds of thousands they go hungry living in dingy tent cities as the second winter of war brings cold rains and floods.

“In one place they agree to a ceasefire and in another place they don’t? Have mercy on the children, the elderly and women,” said Ahlam Abu Shalabi, who lives in a tent in central Gaza. “Now it’s winter and all the people are drowning.”

The Palestinians have come to terms with continued war

The war between Israel and Hamas began on October 7, 2023, when militants attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip, killing approximately 1,200 people and taking approximately 250 hostages. The Israeli retaliatory offensive has wreaked havoc on Palestinian territory, killing more than 44,000 people, according to local health officials. Officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants in their calculations, say more than half of the dead are women and children.

Hezbollah began shooting at Israel the day after the Hamas attack in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group. Since then, both sides have exchanged gunfire almost daily. Moving thousands of troops to its northern border, Israel has stepped up its bombardment of southern Lebanon and launched a ground invasion there two months ago, killing many Hezbollah leaders.

Palestinians now fear that the Israeli army may fully concentrate on the Gaza Strip – something Netanyahu alluded to when he announced a ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday.

“The pressure will be greater on Gaza,” said Mamdouh Younis, a displaced person from a tent camp in central Gaza. Netanyahu, he said, could now take advantage of the fact that “Gaza was left alone, far from all the arenas that supported it, especially the Lebanese front.”

Israeli troops are already engaged fierce fighting in northern Gazawhere a two-month offensive cut off most aid and prompted experts to issue warnings there may be famine. Dozens of people regularly die in strikes throughout the territory.

By signing the ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah changed its long-held position that it would not stop firing across the border until Israel ended the war in Gaza.

“This could have a psychological impact because it will further cement the understanding that Palestinians in Gaza are alone in resisting their occupiers,” said Tariq Kenney Shawa, a U.S. policy specialist at Al-Shabaka’s Palestinian think tank.

Hamas may be digging in its heels

It also leaves Hamas – whose capabilities have already been severely damaged by the Israeli offensive – to fight alone. In an interview on Monday, Hamas official Osama Hamdan appeared to accept Hezbollah’s new position.

“Any announcement of a ceasefire is welcome. Hezbollah stood by our people and made significant sacrifices,” Hamdan told Lebanese broadcaster Al-Mayadeen, which is seen as politically allied with Hezbollah.

Palestinian analyst Khalil Sayegh said a ceasefire could make Hamas even less popular in Gaza, proving the failure of its gambit that an attack on Israel would mobilize other militant groups to fight.

“This is a moment where we can see Hamas’ message becoming weaker and weaker as it tries to justify its strategy to the public,” Sayegh said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah could help force Hamas to the negotiating table because it would show the group that “the cavalry is not on the way.”

However, Hamas experts predicted that it would only engage both on the battlefield and in talks. Hamas insisted it would release all hostages only in exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

“I expect Hamas will continue to use guerrilla warfare to confront Israeli forces in Gaza while they remain,” Shawa said.

The families of the hostages are losing hope

On Tuesday evening, several dozen Israelis gathered on a major highway in Tel Aviv, protesting for the return of hostages as the country waited to hear whether a ceasefire had been agreed in Lebanon.

About 100 people taken hostage remain in Gaza, and at least a third of them are presumed dead. Most of the remaining hostages captured by Hamas were released during a ceasefire last year.

Ricardo Grichener, uncle of 23-year-old hostage Omer Wenkert, said the ceasefire with Hezbollah showed how openly the Israeli government had disregarded the hostages.

Although Israel has done more damage to Hamas in Gaza than to Hezbollah in Lebanon, it said that “the decision to postpone the Gaza agreement and release the hostages is not based on the same criteria of military success.”

The last attempt to end the war stalled in October. US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday he would launch a new push, but his administration is now in the waning days following the re-election of former President Donald Trump.

“This ceasefire does not apply to our hostages. I believe Netanyahu has forgotten about them and just wants to continue fighting in Gaza,” Ifat Kalderon said, clutching a photo of her cousin Ofer Kalderon, who is a hostage and father of four.

“Ofer celebrated his 54th birthday yesterday. His second birthday in Gaza,” she said. “It’s unbelievable that he’s still there.”

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This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Ruby Chen’s name.