Fantasy Football Week 13 Starting Seating Decisions: Thanksgiving Edition

Quarterback

Start: Cooper Rush, Cowboys

Is Cooper’s rush good? Of course not. Does it matter? Just a little. Over the past two weeks, the Cowboys have allowed Rush to play at a +6% higher than expected passer rating.

Rush had 601 yards and three touchdowns in those two games. Vegas typically wouldn’t rely on a backup quarterback after one win, but the Cowboys face a deteriorating Giants defense with their own backup quarterback on the other side of the ball. The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites with a suggested team total of 20.25. That comes ahead of the Bears on Thursday and the Raiders on… Friday. We’re really playing football on Friday now, aren’t we? Rush is a viable QB2 with sneaky DFS potential.

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Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

I don’t know who the Giants quarterback is, and getting the next-lowest team’s quarterback on Thanksgiving (Caleb Williams) seemed too easy. Tua hasn’t completely faded away this week, but it’s a tough spot for the Miami signal-caller. The Packers rank eighth in EPA returns allowed and have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Dolphins are in a weaker away position, and their team is only 1.5 points ahead of Rush’s Cowboys. The match total has also dropped slightly, likely due to the temperature which will be 20 degrees on kick-off day.

Tagovailoa posted scary numbers outside of the heat in Miami. In games where the early temperature was 55 or lower, Tua has averaged 219 yards and 1.2 touchdowns over the past three seasons for a paltry 13.7 fantasy points.

Running back

Start: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys

Dowdle completed the Dallas takeover last week with a season-high 70 percent of the Cowboys’ carries. He had a season-high in touches (22) and amassed 98 yards from scrimmage. The Giants ranked seventh in fantasy running backs and ranked 27th in EPA per rushing attempt allowed.

Sitting: D’Andre Swift, Bears

Like most runners, Swift performs better when his team wins. Unlike some running backs, he doesn’t have the role or efficiency to survive most of Chicago’s losses. Swift goes from RB3 production in losses to high-end RB1 production in the Bears’ rare wins.

With the Bears being a 10-point underdog this week, a Bears victory is as unlikely as it may seem. Swift also ceded the goal line role to Roschon Johnson, making it even more difficult to score touchdowns.

Wide receiver

Starter: Jameson Williams, Lions

Overall, the Bears are a great defense, but their inability to prevent defensive gains has been a glaring leak on the team this year. Chicago ranks 32nd in explosive pass rate (16.8%) and 27th in YPA for deep throws. Williams saw 37 percent of the Lions’ deep targets despite missing two games. He leads the team with 161 yards and two scores on deep shots.

Sitting: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs

The second edition of Week 13 Start Sits will take place on Friday and will include Sunday’s games, but we can talk about the Black Friday matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders here. No Chiefs wide receivers can be played. DeAndre Hopkins ran a route on 45% of the team’s returns last week and has had a route rate below 50% over the past two weeks. He has given himself 10 targets in the last two games and since joining Chiefs he has a 15% target percentage.

Tight end

Starter: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins

Smith leads the Dolphins with a 22 percent target percentage since the team’s Week 6 bye. His 25 percent first reading target share also drives the team. He is fourth in yards per route and fifth in ESPN’s open ratings for tight ends. Even if Tua struggles, Smith is playing well enough and getting the ball enough to get home against a Packers defense that has allowed the 10th-best fantasy points allowed this year.

Sitting: Sam LaPorta, Lions

LaPorta’s role seemed to be heading in the right direction before a shoulder injury sidelined him in Week 11. In the next match, he returned to the less popular appearances he had featured in for most of the season, scoring five goals with a 16 percent target share. LaPorta is nothing more than a TE2 for Week 13.