Last year, Myanmar’s civil war was transformed by a coordinated offensive by powerful resistance groups

BANGKOK – Three well-armed militias they launched a surprise joint offensive in the northeast Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s army, quickly capturing vast swaths of territory and inspiring others to launch attacks across the country.

Before the offensive, the military’s control seemed firmly entrenched thanks to enormous numerical and firepower superiority, aided by material support from Russia and China. But today it is increasingly on the sidelines, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities which even its leaders admit will be difficult to recover.

How did the offensive go?

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, sparking intensified fighting against long-established armed groups linked to ethnic minorities in Myanmar and sparking the creation of new pro-democracy militias.

But by the time Operation 1027 took its title from its launch on October 27, the military known as the Tatmadaw was largely able to prevent major losses across the country.

Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks by the three most powerful ethnic armed groups – the Burma National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, together known as the Three Brothers Alliance – and managed to quickly capture cities and capture military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later The Arakan Army launched attacks in his home western state Rakhineand other militia groups and PDFs have since joined across the country.

A year later, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe of territory stretching from Rakhine State in the west, through the north and then south to Kayah and Kayin states along the border with Thailand. The Tatmadaw withdrew towards the center around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city Yangon.

What’s next?

Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive as the rainy season soon comes to an end, boosted since then by an influx of around 30,000 new troops activation of collection in February and continued total air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city in the center of the country.

Facing threats from across the country, “it appears that the military has no viable path back to regain lost territory,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council on Burma.

“The military is on the defensive across the country and every time it concentrates its energy in one part of the country, it basically has to redeploy troops, and then it is defenseless in other parts,” he said.

What happened to the civilian population of Burma?

As the military faced setbacks in ground combat, it increasingly relied on massive air and artillery attacks, leading to a 95% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase in the number of civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began according to a report prepared last month by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Tatmadaw was accused of deliberately targets civilians in retaliation for perceived support for resistance militias, which he denies.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and according to the United Nations, there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar, with an estimated 18.6 million people in need of assistance

What happens if the military regime falls?

As the front expanded, militias were seen withdrawing from their own ethnic areas, as when the Rakhine-based Arakan Army captured the town of Paletwa in Chin in January, which caused some friction between groups – foreshadowing possible future problems should the Tatmadaw eventually fall .

There is currently a degree of solidarity between disparate ethnic groups focusing on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, communications director of the Myanmar Institute of Strategy and Policy think tank, said this does not translate into shared aspirations.

The collapse of the Tatmadaw could fragment Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“It is unlikely that the resistance will be able to topple the junta, but I cannot take this scenario lightly,” he said. “If we cannot build trust and common goals, this could lead to a Syrian scenario.”

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what proved to be a successful attempt to end organized crime activities flourishing along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties to both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan that lasted five months until the ethnic alliance launched the second phase of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.

China has been unhappy with the development, closing border crossings, cutting power to Myanmar’s cities and taking other actions in a so-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.