AP-NORC poll shows voters are concerned about post-election violence

WASHINGTON (AP) – American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep anxiety about what may come, including potential political violence, attempts to overturn the election results and their broader consequences for democracy, a new poll shows.

Poll results from The Associated Press-NORC Public Affairs Research Center confirm lingering concerns about the fragility of the world’s oldest democracy, nearly four years after former President Donald Trump took power refusal of admission The 2020 election results inspired a crowd of his supporters storm the US Capitol wr brutal attempt to keep the peace transfer of power.

About 4 in 10 registered voters say they are “very” or “extremely” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results after November’s election. A similar part is concerned about taking legal steps in this direction. About 1 in 3 voters say they are “very” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to prevent results from being finalized.

Relatively few voters – about a third or less – are “not very” or “not at all” concerned about any of these developments.

Trump has he still lied about fraud cost him re-election four years ago and again predicts that this time he can only lose if the elections are rigged against him, strategy he has served since his first run for office. His allies and Republican National Committeewhich he transformed, they have filed lawsuits throughout the country, which represent potential prelude to the post-election period legal challenges he should lose.

“I thought that after January 6, 2021, the GOP would be wise enough to reject him as a candidate,” Aostar Kaye of Downey, California, said of Trump. “And since that didn’t happen, I think it just emboldened him and he thought he could do anything and they would still be there for him.”

Many voters believe Trump will not concede if he loses

Trump extensive trials Down reject the will voters and stay in power after his Loss 2020 raised concerns that if he lost to Vice President Kamala, Harris would not concede again.

Nearly 9 in 10 voters said the loser of the presidential election is obligated to concede once each state finishes counting votes and the legal issues are resolved, including about 8 in 10 Republicans. But only about a third of voters expect Trump to accept the results and concede if he loses.

Democrats and Republicans have widely divergent views on this issue: About two-thirds of GOP voters think Trump will concede, compared with only about 1 in 10 Democrats.

The same concern does not apply to Harris. Nearly 8 in 10 voters said Harris would accept the results and step down if she lost the election, which includes the vast majority of GOP voters.

Democrats and Republicans are divided over who will weaken democracy

Members of both parties have broad concerns about how American democracy might fare depending on the outcome of the November election.

Overall, about half of voters believed that Trump, if won, would weaken U.S. democracy “a great deal” or “somewhat,” while about 4 in 10 voters said the same about Harris.

No wonder Americans were deeply divided ideologically. About 8 in 10 Republicans said another Trump term would strengthen democracy “a lot” or “somewhat,” while a similar share of Democrats said the same about a Harris presidency.

About 9 in 10 voters of each party said the opposing party’s candidate would likely weaken democracy “to some extent” if elected.

Kaye, a retired health care worker, called Trump an “existential threat to the Constitution.” According to her, one prospect scares her: if Trump wins, he will probably not have the same protective barriers in his new administration as in the previous one.

Republican voter Debra Apodaca, 60, of Tucson, Arizona, said Harris poses a greater threat to democracy. She said President Joe Biden’s administration has over-prioritized foreign aid and shown a lack of concern for its own citizens.

“We send our taxes everywhere. It won’t stay here. Why don’t we take care of America?” she said. “Why do we have to pay taxes if we just ship it?”

That lack of concern extends to the border, she said, adding that a Harris victory would mean “the end of the Border Patrol.”

The January 6 attack on the Capitol is a dividing line

Part of what divides voters on their views of American democracy is the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and who is to blame. Democrats and independents are much more likely than Republican voters to attribute “a lot” or “quite a lot” of responsibility to Trump.

Susan Ohde, an independent voter from Chicago and a retiree from the financial industry, expressed fear that “crazy people will buy the misinformation being fed to them,” leading to another such attack.

Giovanna Elizabeth Minardi of Yucaipa, California, said other issues are more important in this year’s election. She said her main concern is the economy and believes high prices, especially in her home state, are crowding out businesses and creating dependence on the government. It’s a relationship Harris wants to continue, said Minardi, the children’s rights and family services advocate.

Views on the January 6 attack are not the only ones on which voters were divided ideologically. Next Trump’s advantagemost Republicans maintain that Biden was illegally elected. Nearly all Democrats and about 7 in 10 independent lawmakers believe Biden was legitimately elected.

Other aspects of the political system are also divisive

This year’s presidential campaign has highlighted one aspect of the American political system that some say is undemocratic — the use of the Electoral College to choose the president rather than the popular vote. Trump and Harris do concentrated events related to the campaign and advertisements on seven battlefields state this constitute only 18% the country’s population.

About half of voters believe the possibility that a candidate could become president after winning the Electoral College but losing the popular vote is a “serious concern” in the US election. As with many other issues, the question also reveals a partisan divide: About two-thirds of Democrats say a potential split in the Electoral College vote is a serious problem, compared with about one-third of Republicans.

Debra Christensen, 54, a community nurse and Democrat from Watertown, Wisconsin, opposes the Electoral College, which could give Trump the White House even if he loses popular support for a third time.

“In this day and age with technology, why can’t we have one person, one voice?” she said.

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The poll of 1,072 adults was conducted Oct. 11-14, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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