The ANC will not support SA’s actions against Ring of Fire

It was only in 2004 that SA finally established cooperation. This included the SADR embassy, ​​which is based in Pretoria at SADR taxpayer expense (along with the Palestinian embassy). The ANC regularly cites Western Sahara in its policy documents, calling the area “the last colony in Africa,” and has frequently clashed with Morocco, including working with Algeria to try – unsuccessfully – to keep Morocco out of the AU.

Given this history, the ANC’s quick response to Bapela’s allegedly unauthorized overtures to Morocco should perhaps come as no surprise. But on a geopolitical level, this story is more than just a story of past loyalty to a Cold War ally or differences within the ANC over how to resolve tensions with Morocco.

To fully appreciate this situation, one must also look at the Ring of Fire and the role of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Over the past few months, the world has witnessed an ambition to, as the previous president put it, “wipe Israel off the map” by firing hundreds of ballistic missiles at the country.

However, Iran faces logistical challenges to achieve this goal. There is no border with Israel to attack with an army and no air force capable of facing Israel in the skies. To compensate, it has developed a dual strategy of building a nuclear weapons program and creating a network of proxy troops armed with missiles located in closer proximity, making it easier to attack Israeli civilian centers.

These proxies, especially Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and several smaller groups in Iraq and Syria, form a “Ring of Fire” that is theoretically intended to deter an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear or other facilities. It is these proxies that Israel has been fighting against since October 7, 2023.

The Polisario Front was not originally part of the Ring of Fire, but beginning around 2016, Hezbollah established contact with the group and established contacts with it. There have been multiple reports that Iran is providing both weapons and training. In response, Morocco severed relations in 2018.

The situation worsened in 2020 after Morocco formally established diplomatic relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. This diplomatic success marked Iran’s defeat in the region.

As of October 7, 2023, the ANC has maintained much closer diplomatic relations with Iran and its allies. Former Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Naledi Pandor called Hamas shortly after the attacks and also made an unscheduled visit to Tehran.

By seeking to change the status quo between SA and Morocco, Bapela and his delegation would enter the Ring of Fire and undermine the Iranian ally’s diplomatic position at a moment of significant vulnerability for the regime. This may explain the strong reaction from the ANC.

• Shulman is the director of the Middle East Africa Research Institute.