Free agent options, prospect projections and more

The PhilliesThe fifth starting carousel began spinning before opening day in 2024.

A shoulder injury put presumed fifth starter Taijuan Walker on the injured list in the final week of spring training, so the Phillies turned to Spencer Turnbull to start the season in the rotation. Turnbull became the first of six pitchers (not counting openers) to get a chance in the fifth.

Some stayed there for several weeks. Several received multiple summonses. However, none of Walker, Turnbull, Tyler Phillips, Kolby Allard, Michael Mercado or Seth Johnson managed to cement the fifth spot as their own, so the carousel continued to spin.

Since only four starters were needed in the National League Division Series, rotation was not the reason the Phillies lost in the playoffs. However, the overall lack of consistency was an issue raised by Phillies baseball team president Dave Dombrowski during his end-of-season press conference, and he cited it as the reason for the Phillies’ decline after the All-Star break.

“If you look at the fifth place we took, it wasn’t a good place for us in the last two months of the season,” Dombrowski said. “… All of a sudden we’re not going out on the field with a constant five-man rotation, which I think is very important.”

Current turnover

Before we consider some moves Dombrowski could make to create that consistency, let’s start with the pieces the Phillies already have in place. In 2024, Zack Wheeler has put together another Cy Young Award winning season. Aaron Nola was durable and reliable. Cristopher Sánchez established himself as a key part of the rotation and was named an All-Star for the first time.

Ranger Suárez started the season as an All-Star but lost form in the second half after suffering a lower back injury. His fastball rate dropped, and his performance suffered as a result: Suárez posted an ERA of 2.76 in the first half and a 5.65 after the All-Star break. Still, Suárez had a solid performance in Game 4 of the NLDS, but it was wasted by the Phillies’ offense.

Wheeler (200 innings), Nola (199⅓) and Sánchez (181⅔) were three of 21 pitchers in the major leagues to throw more than 180 innings in the regular season. All three extended their contracts last year. Wheeler will remain under team control until 2027, and Nola and Sánchez until 2030.

Suárez, in turn, will become a free agent in 2026. Dombrowski doesn’t like to brag about his contract extension plans, and this offseason deal with the 29-year-old Suárez is no exception.

“We really like the Ranger. That’s understandable,” Dombrowski said. “And we like Ranger more in the first half of the season than the second. From his own perspective, there were many things involved. But he’s a good pitcher. We are all very open to Ranger being with the organization for the long term.”

Walker question

Coming off the worst season of his career, Walker is set to pursue a detailed winter program aimed at rediscovering the 2022 form that earned him his current $72 million contract.

“I think he’ll come to spring training with us next year, but there’s no guarantee he’ll have a spot in the starting lineup,” Dombrowski said.

Walker forces contact and has historically caused a lot of ground balls. But with his struggles with speed and command in 2024, he wasn’t short on multiple barrels. Walker’s swing-miss rate (16.7%) and average exit velocity (91.4 mph) were in the bottom 1% of MLB pitchers.

Walker’s offseason program will be similar to what the Phillies tried during the season and will include weighted balls to increase his speed. Manager Rob Thomson felt the program was helpful, but it had to be put on hold when Walker returned to the starting rotation in September. Thomson hopes a full off-season of work will lead to lasting change.

“He approaches it like he has to get a job. So I think that knowing Tai, he will make every effort to make it happen,” Thomson said.

However, if Walker does not make a change and the Phillies decide to break the tie, they will have to pay the $36 million remaining on his contract.

Painter’s watch

Top pitching prospect Andrew Painter will certainly be a part of the Phillies’ future rotation. The question is how quickly the 6-foot-7 right-hander will be able to make the jump.

“He’s a very, very talented person and you can see he’s healthy,” Dombrowski said. “…We’re going to have to decide how we use his innings next year because he’s not going to be a guy we can throw out and count on to throw 180 innings at the big-league level. “

This decision will be made after Painter’s Arizona Fall League career ends. The 21-year-old has thrown seven innings in three AFL appearances, including three scoreless innings on Thursday. In his first real game action since Tommy John surgery in 2023, Painter radiator it peaked at 100 miles per hour October 12.

Moving forward, Mick Abel’s overall outlook for No. 6 is a bit cloudier. Abel, 23, a first-round pick in the 2020 draft, was in the conversation to make his major league debut sometime during the 2024 season after an impressive spring training. But then he struggled in triple-A, posting a 6.46 ERA over 108⅔ innings and sliding down the depth chart.

Abel’s 15.1% walk rate was a career high and his 22.7% strikeout rate was a career low. He will have to rediscover his command to have a chance of breaking through with a top-flight club.

A name to know outside of the Phillies’ top 30 prospects is Eiberson Castellano. In September, the 23-year-old right-hander was named Phillies minor league pitcher of the year after his first season as a full-time starter. In 20 starts between top-A Jersey Shore and double-A Reading, Castellano posted a 3.99 ERA and his 136 strikeouts were the most of any Phillies minor leaguer.

If they are not named to the Phillies’ 40-man roster, Abel and Castellano will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft, which will take place during the winter meetings beginning Dec. 8.

Possible goals

With Painter waiting for a wing, the Phillies won’t be talking about high-priced front-end names like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried this offseason. However, injuries do happen and Dombrowski may decide to do so double when you start casting to determine further depth.

“It actually makes it more difficult in the sense that there is no certainty when (Painter) will come back,” Dombrowski said. If you sign someone and they’re looking to get the ball every day, there are some complications, but it’s not insurmountable.

Turnbull will be a free agent after missing most of the season with a right shoulder strain. Before Turnbull went on the injured list in June, his ERA in 17 appearances (seven starts) was 2.65. Turnbull has yet to prove he can maintain this success, however; he has not had a starter’s workload since 2019 due to his long injury history. After a tumultuous 2024 season between the rotation and the bullpen, it’s unclear what role the 32-year-old will play, if any.

Potential destinations for the Phillies could include a short-term deal with a player like Walker Buehler from the Dodgers as a depth piece. The 30-year-old right-hander has struggled this season after returning from his second Tommy John surgery. Buehler, however, has proven effective in the postseason and could be an inexpensive reclamation project if the Phillies want to see if he can regain All-Star form for 2021 while waiting for Painter.

The Phillies could still get a boost by trading Garrett Crochet to the White Sox, whom they previously pursued at the deadline. The 25-year-old left-hander had a 35.1% strikeout rate and an expected ERA of 2.83 in 2024. Crochet has a five-pitch mix, highlighted by a four-seamer who averaged 97.1 mph. His overall numbers dropped in the second half of the season as Chicago limited his innings, but he was able to stay healthy in his first full season as a starter.