NFL Week 8 Predictions, Picks: Expert vs. Spread Bets

Somehow the worst DVOA offense in the league against the best is my best play of the week. But that’s it – I don’t think they are valid Brown it’s the worst offense in the league or anything like that.

Finally, our national debt Deshaun Watson the nightmare is over. Jameis Winston is starting and should finally bring an air of competence to the attack, which has been sorely lacking. Winston will attack aggressively downfield, which has worked well Joe Flaco last season and this is a particularly weak point in this case Ravens a defense that allows for explosive passing throughout the season.

But it’s not just about Jameis. The Browns also announced a change at quarterback, with Ken Dorsey eventually taking over. This is exactly what I was hoping for before the season when I bet on the Browns as the long shot in the division (RIP). Dorsey was an excellent playmaker and his style should suit Winston.

Cleveland is also strengthening its offensive line much more than it did earlier in the season, and now star G Wyatt Turner is back as well. And although he is not quite himself yet, the RB star Nick Chubb he’s back too.

Cleveland’s entire offense needs to be improved, and a better offense will make life much easier for a defense that was so good a year ago and has quietly gained form in recent weeks.

All of these changes move the Browns from my No. 26 to No. 19 in offense and from No. 26 to No. 13 in my team’s overall rankings. What this actually means is that the Browns are no longer the Browns, but something more like it Steel workers, Chargersor even Vikings now without Christian Darrisaw.

This means that this team is mispriced in the market.

These rivals hate each other and the competition is usually fierce. The teams have split the season series in five of the last six seasons, with five of the last seven matchups ending by six points. The Browns look terrible right now, but even the bad version is down by four, four, six, and seven points. They’re not good, but they’re hanging around enough to cover that line even before the offensive improvements.

This is a classic buy-lowest-sell-highest position. Teams like the Ravens that have scored over 25 points in five straight are 42% ATS over the last two decades, while underdogs that have scored 16 or fewer points in three straight are 61% ATS as of 2019. Lamar Jackson he’s 42% ATS as a more-than-field-goal favorite, while Jameis Winston is 66% ATS as a more-than-field-goal underdog.

That line rose all the way to Brown’s +11.5 earlier this week when we first talked about buying Cleveland stock on Tuesday’s roundtable podcast. I played at +9.5 and you can still play at +8.5 without major losses. I will also sprinkle in the money line at +350. Sounds crazy, but the Ravens have already lost to Invaders.

This is also a great opportunity to buy Browns cheap future with a total win of 3.5. This game is essentially a freeroll game and the upcoming schedule is against the Chargers, Saintssteel workers, Broncoand the Steelers again. They’re all pretty similar opponents and likely mean ugly, low-scoring games that the Browns can win. Those above 3.5 are not a bad escalator in Cleveland, if you believe in the changes.

Ravens vs. Browns