Here’s what to watch in the last full week of the presidential campaign

NEW YORK – Uncertainty enters the final full week of the 2024 campaign with Democrats Kamala Harris and republican Donald Trump entangled in fierce competition for the office of president. What happens in the coming days will be crucial to choosing the winner.

Here’s what we’re watching this week:

Will wars in the Middle East change the focus?

Foreign affairs rarely influence U.S. presidential elections, but wars in the Middle East are escalating just as millions of voters are preparing to cast their ballots.

It is still unclear how Iran will respond to Israel’s unusually public airstrikes on Iran on Friday. The answer may determine whether the region will descend further towards total war or whether it will maintain already devastating and destabilizing levels of violence.

Iran’s response could also determine the extent to which the conflict in the Middle East influences the U.S. election.

The issue has been particularly difficult for Harris because she simultaneously vows to support Israel and shows empathy for the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed in Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. The Democratic vice president continues to face intense pressure from her party’s progressive base, which is extremely critical of Israel.

Trump has been unapologetic in his support for Israel, although some Arab-American leaders – especially in the swing state of Michigan – have been unusually supportive of the former Republican president, who became famous for banning travel from many Muslim countries during his first term.

Even in the best-case scenario, the next president will inherit one of the most volatile foreign policy challenges in decades.

Will Harris’ final message tame Democratic anxiety?

To describe Democrats as concerned as Election Day approaches would be an understatement. But over the weekend, Harris’ senior team made a deliberate effort to instill optimism within the team that helped ease the fear.

Harris senior adviser Jenn O’Malley Dillon predicted a victory Sunday on MSNBC: “We’re confident we’re going to win this case,” she said. “We see extraordinary enthusiasm. It’s going to be a close race and our campaign is exactly where we want to be. “

Harris will try to further ease Democrats’ anxiety on Tuesday, when she delivers the verdict her “closing speech” at the Ellipse, the same venue near the White House where Trump spoke on Jan. 6, 2021, shortly before his supporters attacked the Capitol.

Harris is expected to focus her remarks on the danger Trump poses to American democracy. In recent days, she called her Republican rival a “fascist.” She is joined by an unlikely ally, Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly, who also recently described Trump as a fascist.

But he is also expected to touch on broader topics, encouraging voters to look back at the White House and imagine who will sit behind the Resolute Desk at a momentous moment. Its goal is to draw attention to the fate of the Nov. 5 election to undecided voters – especially moderate Republicans who may feel uncomfortable with Trump’s divisive leadership and extreme rhetoric. And while Harris’ team is betting that there are a significant number of moderates who can still be convinced, Progressive Democrats are concerned In the last days of the campaign, she did not focus enough on economic issues.

As we have learned, fear of democracy may be a fact.

Can Trump stick to the message (relatively speaking)?

Even before the week began, there was a risk that the Trump campaign would be thrown off course by the controversy. Instead, a rally was held at Madison Square Garden in New York late Sunday to serve as a closing message overshadowed by racist slursincluding a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”

And with eight days until Election Day, history suggests that Trump is virtually guaranteed to say or do something else controversial at the last minute. The only question is whether it will break through.

If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Trump can’t help himself. In recent days, he has used authoritarian-style rhetoric to suggest that his democratic opponents, whom he calls ” enemy within”, are more dangerous to the nation than the threat posed by Russia and China.

Democrats will be combing through every Trump interview and public appearance for anything similar to exploit. There are also multiple ongoing criminal investigations into Trump, who has already been convicted of 34 crimes, which could reveal new information.

But Democrats are the first to admit that voters’ views of Trump are so hardened that it would take something truly stunning to change the course of the election.

However, there is precedent for last week’s stunning finale. Recall that on October 28, 2016, former FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress in which he informed that federal investigators had learned about new e-mails related to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server.

Where will they go?

Candidates’ changing travel schedules will tell us a lot about the battlegrounds that will matter most on Election Day.

Here’s what we know for sure: Harris and Trump are aggressively competing against each other in just seven swing states that will ultimately decide the election. These are the three Blue Wall states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – in addition to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

However, from a political point of view, not all of the seven are created equal.

Harris spent Sunday in Pennsylvania, which could be the biggest prize of the election. Harris’ next appearance is scheduled for Michigan. And after Tuesday’s closing argument in Washington, he plans to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin only on Wednesday. He will travel to Nevada and Arizona on Thursday.

What do we know about Trump’s schedule? He is booked to hold at least one rally every day next week: Monday in Georgia, Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Wednesday in Wisconsin, Thursday in Nevada, Friday again in Wisconsin and Saturday in Virginia.

However, we remind you that these schedules are likely to change depending on information collected about field campaigns.

Will the increase in early voting continue?

Above 41 million votes have already been cast in elections throughout the country. Democrats generally have an advantage in early voting, but at least so far, Republicans are participating at much higher rates than in the past.

The question is: will it last?

Trump, of course, has encouraged his supporters for years to cast only in-person ballots on Election Day. This practice puts the GOP at a significant disadvantage. He has largely reversed course in recent months as he and his party recognize the obvious advantage of being able to store votes as early as possible.

Due to Republican participation, turnout was early breaking records last week in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.

But with the GOP focusing more on “election integrity” rather than the traditional get-out-the-vote operation, it’s unclear whether the surge in Republican early voting will continue. Democrats hope that won’t happen.

How hard will Trump work to overturn the election results?

History may one day decide that the most important thing Trump said in the final days of the 2024 election is the thing that many voters barely pay attention to anymore: his persistent warnings that this election is rigged against him.

Indeed, as Election Day approaches, Trump has increasingly warned his supporters that he will only lose on November 5 if his political opponents cheat. Such claims have no basis in reality. There was no evidence of significant voter fraud in the 2020 election, which Trump lost, and no evidence that Trump’s opponents could or would rig the election against him.

Still, Trump’s baseless warnings are making an already tense and violent election season even more tense. And they are real threats from foreign adversaries — especially Russia, China, and Iran — will interfere in the election.

Simultaneously, The Republican National Committee invested tens of millions of dollars in an operation to mobilize thousands of polling station observers, election workers and lawyers to serve as guardians of “election integrity.” Democrats fear the efforts could lead to harassment of election workers and undermine confidence in voting.

Both sides are aggressive preparing for long legal battles it doesn’t matter who wins.