Election polls may be underestimating Democrat Kamala Harris in key states, a CNN reporter warns

CNN data reporter Harry Enten warned Tuesday that election polls may be underestimating Vice President Kamala Harris rather than former President Trump, who has been historically underestimated in election polls in previous cycles.

“If the polls underestimate Donald Trump once again, it would be unprecedented in history,” Enten said. “What usually happens is pollsters get caught up in, ‘Hey, we’re underestimating, we’re underestimating some part of the electorate.’ They make adjustments, and I think that helps explain why we have never seen the same party be underestimated three times in a row in a presidential election, at least in the last 52 years.”

CNN’s John Berman also asked Enten about the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats have exceeded expectations, and what that might indicate about polling in key swing states.

“What do we see in 2022 in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? Well, it turns out that the average poll in these states actually underestimated Democrats by four points. He undershot Democrats by four points. And I want to apply that to the election results map because (if) it turns out that polls underestimated Democrats like they did in 2022, well, Kamala Harris wins a landslide,” Enten said.

CNN reporter Harry Enten warned Tuesday that Kamala Harris may be underestimated in election polls. (Screenshot/CNN)

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“I think a lot of people are kind of hoping that Donald Trump will actually be underrated in the polls. But when I look at the evidence, I think we need to wait a while. Maybe that will happen. Maybe that will happen, but I think there are people who don’t appreciate the idea that maybe Kamala Harris will be underestimated in the polls,” Enten concluded.

Enten also warned that polls have underestimated the former president in the past, and although he overtook Harris early in the cycle, the race for the White House is effectively tied in key swing states.

So does polling guru Nate Silver he warned in August that Trump was underestimated in the last two elections.

Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, arrives for a question and answer session with Pastor Paula White during the National Faith Advisory Summit on October 28, 2024 in Powder Springs, Georgia. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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In early October, Enten said that if the polls came out as they did in 2020, Trump would win in a “blowout.”

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“What will happen then? Well, then Donald Trump wins elections in shambles with 312 electoral votes because it includes all the battleground states on the Great Lake, Nevada and the other states where he led – Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia,” he said at the time.